Oggy Bloggy Ogwr

The smiles didn't last very long in Cardiff, did they?
It's unquestionable that Labour had an excellent result in 2012.
How have things gone since then?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Before delving into the prospects for the parties and key contests etc. it's worth looking at the current state of local government in Wales and what conclusions we can draw.

See also:

What did we learn from the local elections? (05.05.12)
Local Intelligence (07.09.14)

The Present Map of Local Government

If you were to look objectively at the map you could draw a few conclusions:

Labour dominate (but don't have it all their own way)– Labour dominate the south, do sod all in the bit between the A465 and A55, then have a scattering of influence across the northern coast. Even their most optimistic expectations were exceeded in 2012, but most of their growth came in places where the party were already strong: the south Wales valleys and north east.

To hold on to their southern heartlands with such an iron grip is impressive, predictable and depressing in equal measure – aided no doubt by the electoral system. But the fact that a party with such political dominance can't make headway in places like Powys, Pembrokeshire and Gwynedd does suggest the "Three Wales Model"is a psychological barrier to a truly national polity, hurting Labour as much as the other parties and Welsh politics as a whole.

Independents: The "Second Party"of Local Government – I'm not sure how things are elsewhere in the UK, but Independent candidates are a popular choice at local elections, to the extent they control three authorities and are part of ruling coalitions in a further seven. Some counties – like Pembrokeshire, Anglesey and Powys – have a long-standing tradition of voting for Independents, while others – like Wrexham and Vale of Glamorgan – end up with large independent blocks due to a failure of party politics at a local level leading either to defections or"hyper-local"parties and groups forming (like the Llantwit Major Independents and Porthcawl First).

It seems to be a mainly rural phenomenon, and it wouldn't surprise me if there's a correlation between low population densities and voting for Independents. As for why Independents do better in local elections than national ones: perhaps smaller wards distant from centres of power lend themselves to voters backing "truly local candidates"; maybe there's a belief amongst many people that party politics should stay out of local government; there's a failure of party politics on the ground (lack of canvassing/intelligence gathering, lack of candidates, poor performance by dominant parties).

Plaid Cymru still struggle outside Y Fro Gymraeg – Try as they might Plaid still can't shake off the "Party for Welsh-speakers" tag. Whenever they come close to doing so, there'll be some incident to drag them firmly back into that box – the Llangennech school row being 2017's. It'll go down well in Ceredigion, Angelsey and Gwynedd, will probably win them control of Carmarthenshire and shore up the vote in Pontcanna. Will it win them any votes in Rhondda or Merthyr or Blaenau Gwent? Places they need to take from Labour? Of course not.

It always seems Plaid are too keen to reinforce the vote they've already got instead of trying to break new ground and that looks like it's going to be the strategy again this year. The electoral system doesn't help them in the south, but they should be trying to put up as many candidates as possible to give people a choice and say "We are here". It could even be a condition of membership that members put themselves forward for, at the very least, town and community council seats.

Like him or loathe him, this is what Plaid need to learn from Neil McEvoy in spirit if not in practice: campaign on local issues not trendy "grandcauses", don't bang on about institutions nobody outside the Welsh-speaking middle class care about (i.e. S4C, Welsh language standards), don't be afraid to call Labour out (but do it smartly). The only thing Neil isn't doing is tying things – no matter how minor - to the national cause. Many of the powers to deal effectively with drug-related litter, for example, are likely to only come via independence.

Very little influence for the Conservatives and Lib Dems– The last local elections took place during the middle of the previous Coalition Westminster government and amidst the Lib Dem's infamous u-turn on tuition fee caps. Both parties were going to get punished, but the Lib Dems came off worse, losing control (or joint control) of Swansea, Cardiff and Wrexham. That left them forming an unlikely ruling coalition with the Tories in Monmouthshire, where the Conservatives performed particularly poorly themselves – Tories losing Monmouthshire is like Labour losing control of Neath Port Talbot.

You could even say both parties, despite having a reasonable number of councillors between them, are a near irrelevance in local politics. Again, victims of the electoral system to an extent.

Will that change? That's for another post. What's becoming clear though is that this election will either seal the fate of the Lib Dems as a "dead on their feet party"in Wales, or start their revival. As I said after last year's Assembly election, as long as they pick their targets carefully they'll make progress – but the dream of them taking large numbers of seats in the likes of Bridgend, Ceredigion, RCT etc. are long over.

How have things changed since 2012?

I'm going to go into a more detailed look at the expectations each of the parties will have another time, but it's still worth looking at how things are at the moment and how they've changed over the last five years.

I should point out I've used total votes cast to calculate the vote share – that means counting every vote in every ward under the multiple member system (i.e. if Plaid put up three candidates in a ward, I count the combined vote received for all three). Personally, I think it's more accurate.

Click to enlarge

I put the above together at the end of February and it's already out of date. For example, Cllr. Ralph Cook – then a Green/Independent on Cardiff Council – has defected to the Lib Dems.

At a more local level, another Labour"purge"in Neath Port Talbot has increased the number of sitting Independents from 5 to 13, while the recent untimely death of long-standing Brackla Labour councillor, David Sage, has left a (technical) vacancy in Bridgend.

Labour have net-lost around 30 council seats since 2012 (2013 once Anglesey is included) – mainly through defections and suspensions than by-election defeats. They've also lost positions in ruling coalitions in two local authorities – Carmarthenshire and Wrexham. As Labour were way out in front in 2012, losing some ground isn't surprising and not bad news in itself. The real question is whether their current dire polling, or the creation of large number of spurned Independents through internal "purges"will "cause the dam to break".

Independentshave made gains since 2012/2013 – some 47 councillors and also seizing overall control of Wrexham. Most of those gains will have come through defections and suspensions, though I don't remember any significant by-election victories for Independents.

Plaid Cymruhave made modest progress – a net gain of 6 councillors since 2013, in addition to taking overall control of Gwynedd and forming a ruling coalition in Carmarthenshire. More positives than negatives, but they perhaps haven't made the progress they would've liked in the Cardiff by-elections.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are pretty much exactly where they were in 2012. Nothing more to add, really. That does, however, also mean they've managed to keep their respective numbers despite everything that's been thrown at the Lib Dems in particular - which is probably a good sign for them all things considered as it displays loyalty.

UKIP and the Greens aren't really doing much either. Technically UKIP has no councillors (they won seats in the Vale of Glamorgan and Merthyr Tydfil but have since lost them, their only councillor in Ceredigion sits as an Independent) and the Greens only one. The only other major talking point is the disintegration of Llais Gwynedd, having lost 6 councillors since 2012, including one of their leading figures in Louise Hughes.

Top-Down Pressures on Local Government

(Pic : Wales Online)

Finances– The Welsh Government decide the combined budget for local authorities, and the budget for the Welsh Government is in turn decided by the UK Parliament. If Westminster cuts the budget to Wales then inevitably Cardiff will pass those on to county halls (though they have a choice whether to do so or not). Once inflation is taken into account all Welsh local authorities have seen their budgets cut every year for the last five years – amounting to hundreds of millions of pounds – and despite the relatively"good"settlement for 2017-18, the cuts are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

Social Services & Social Care– Due to a population that's living longer but not necessarily living healthier, there are a number of pressures facing social services departments across the UK, but particularly in Wales where the population is older and sicker than the UK average. A new law was passed by the National Assembly in 2014 which intends to provide more personally appropriate assessments of a person's social care needs and greater protection for vulnerable children and adults. Trying to fully implement those measures rests of the shoulders of local councils, amidst growing budget pressures and long-standing issues over the cost of full-time residential care.

Schools– During the Fourth Assembly it was Labour policy to protect school budgets at 1% above any change to the Welsh block grant. That policy has since been abandoned and it means that at a local level, schools budget are now "fair game". That doesn't mean councils will automatically cut there, but with the budgets having been largely protected for the last five years, some councils – Bridgend included– will make cuts. In the long run that could mean teaching redundancies, bigger class sizes and more pressure to do more with less when it comes to the curriculum.

Regional Working & Pursuit of Reforms– One moment it looked like we would see the number of local authorities cut, but in a typical Welsh Government fudge, that's been replaced with a new policy of closer regional working. It's already done with schools (Regional Educational Consortia) and some aspects of health, but it could also be coming in for other areas. Will this cause confusion? Is it just delaying the inevitable (mergers)? Will some councils – like Conwy and Denbighshire – press ahead with mergers by themselves?

This afternoon saw the final FMQs before an extended Easter recess, which will no doubt be taken up by local election campaigning.

Before the meeting, AMs paid tribute to Claire Clancy - the first Chief Executive and Clerk to the Assembly Commission - who's retiring this week after 10 years. The First Minister said Claire's legacy will be overseeing the Senedd's transformation from an“ad hoc body into a pillar of Wales' democracy” and maintaining public openness despite heightened security concerns.

FMQs, 4^th April 2017

Party Leaders

Conservative leader, Andrew Davies AM (Con, South Wales Central) turned attentions to the sacking of the Chair and Vice-Chair of Sport Wales. The (now former) Chair was appointed after being told he was entering a toxic environment. Allegations – submitted in a letter to James Price (a senior civil servant) - surrounding Sport Wales require answers, so how will they be taken forward and investigated?

The First Minister accepted Sport Wales faced “great difficulties” and an independent review is continuing. The Welsh Government backs the decision to sack the Chair and Vice-Chair. It was clear there was a “clash of cultures” between them and the board which couldn't continue and required action.

Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood AM (Plaid, Rhondda), raised concerns over proposed job losses at the University of South Wales and Trinity St Davids University. Rising costs and demographic challenges faced both, but they play a major role in local economies – particularly the Treforest campus. She was told many of those affected would be managers, but unions now believe cuts could apply to all staff. What did the Welsh Government know about this beforehand?

The First Minister hasn't seen any explanations, but was aware of the situation. He believes it's due to a drop in applications by foreign students, with a fall of 8% in EU students alone last year. Fewer students means less money for staff and he hadn't seen anything on this scale since he attended university in the 1980s. More money has been provided to universities and there are also schemes like Ser Cymru, but Wales still needs to be seen as an attractive option to foreign students.

UKIP leader, Neil Hamilton AM (UKIP, Mid & West Wales) believed the EU was usingGibraltar as a bargaining chip to get a better deal on Brexit. The question of sovereignty was settled by referendum when Gibraltarians overwhelmingly chose to remain British. Would the First Minister write to the Spanish Prime Minister and Gibraltar's Chief Minister supporting Gibraltar's right to self-determination?

Carwyn believes it's important negotiations start as soon as possible. However, he decried some of the reporting on Gibraltar as “hysterical” saying Spain had, in fact, remained quiet on the issue and are more concerned about Gibraltar's tax-haven status. It was absolutely clear Gibraltarians want to remain British, but they voted equally overwhelmingly to remain in the EU. It's important the border remains open and he'll meet the Chief Minister in the next few weeks.

Backbenchers

Nick Ramsay AM (Con, Monmouth) requested a statement on investment in Welsh road infrastructure. The Welsh Government's original Newport bypass proposal included “de-motorwaying” the existing Magor-Castleton section. Is that still their intention even though it could have a negative impact on journey times itself?

There's a projected Welsh Government spend of £700million across Wales in addition to funding for the proposed M4 Newport bypass. The Welsh Government also have a “pinch point scheme” to deal with problems on the north-south A470, and will encourage provision of walking/cycling routes alongside new road schemes. He wouldn't comment on the ongoing public inquiry, but all evidence will be considered before a final recommendation.

In a second question, Leanne Wood AM asked for an update on the work of the valleys task force. The valleys are desperate for higher wages and investment, with long commutes “a joke” - citing two cancelled trains in the Rhondda this morning. How will the Cardiff city region's actions match the rhetoric?

The First Minister said the taskforce has met four times, and an outline delivery plan will be published in July, shaped by feedback from public engagement events - which have been attended by ministers. Transport is key and that's why the Metro's important, providing more frequent rail services and interconnecting buses. This is to enure the valleys aren't seen as“distant” from Cardiff for investors as much as providing faster commutes for valleys residents.

Hefin David AM (Lab, Caerphilly) asked what actions the Welsh Government were taking to support access to high street banks? Natwest recently announced closures around south Wales, including Ystrad Mynach. This was done without consultation, which he condemned. How can Welsh Government ensure the Post Office can retain those services? (See also: Senedd Spanks The Banks).

The First Minister reminded the chamber that banking is non-devolved and decisions on closures are the responsibility for banks themselves; he's been told to expect more closures. He knows patronage of banks in Bridgend town centre has fallen as people change banking methods, such as online (Co-op recently announced they'll close their Bridgend branch).

If you can access banking services through Post Offices, then it's not only good for customers but will ensure Post Offices have a future too. Having said that, banks should think of every alternative before closure, which should be a “final option”.

Continuing the running theme of the backbench members debates this term - the "Fourth Industrial Revolution" - AMs turned to automation, something that was once science fiction but fast becoming science fact.

The Issue

See also: Life, Ethics & Independence IX: Robots & Cyborgs

As usual there's a briefing from the Assembly Research Service.

It's believed up to 15million jobs in the UK are at risk from automation, particularly low-skilled, relatively low paid work in manufacturing and the service sector. The car industry and high-end manufacturing have used robots for decades, while self-service checkouts are a norm of modern life and it's even starting to make its way into banking, with counter staff replaced by machines or smartphone apps.

Machines are faster, stronger, rarely make mistakes on their own, don't need rest and don't need to be paid. They're particularly useful for repetitive tasks that require little in the way of decision-making - like being a blogger - as well as situations that require the processing of large amounts of data in a short space of time - like being a blogger.

Increased automation will have a huge impact on the economy and even the very concept of "work" itself. Some of the implications include: the introduction of basic income/citizen's income, a robot tax, shorter working weeks, job-sharing as well as major changes to skills and training.

If we don't get it right, automation could also create a massive underclass who are surplus to requirements and unable to support themselves - including people who currently consider themselves middle-class/white collar.

I told you making binary the only official language would be useful.

The Motion

The Senedd:

Notes the challenges and opportunities presented by the "Fourth Industrial Revolution".
Notes an estimated 700,000 Welsh jobs are at risk from automation over the next 20 years.
Believes Wales has a competitive advantage in emerging growth industries, but to capitalise on that we need to be able to adapt to changing circumstances.
Calls on the Welsh Government to revisit its innovation strategy, taking into account the scale of the coming changes, with a strategic review of opportunities in emerging growth sectors to establish early market dominance.

Key Points

Lee Waters AM (Lab, Llanelli):

The"Fourth Industrial Revolution"will be defined by the ability to combine technology with physical and biological systems.
Technology has crept into our lives by stealth; CDs and DVDs have become practically obsolete in a generation, our money is increasingly digital, our homes are smarter, there's driverless transport and we'll soon be able to reuse rockets for space travel.
The impact will be gendered: for every 3 male jobs lost to automation 1 will be gained, women will lose 5 jobs for every 1 job gained.
Automation needn't always be seen as a threat to jobs but a tool for growth and the creation of new economic sectors like precision agriculture, big data in finance and cybersecurity.

Dai Lloyd AM (Plaid, South Wales West):

Technological developments like artificial intelligence have the potential to displace traditional jobs in manufacturing and processing.
We have two options: fight against it like Luddites, or innovate to survive. The latter still needs protection for workers, an education system that develops necessary skills and lifelong learning opportunities available to everyone but particularly those who miss out.
Innovation funds from the EU will need to be continued post-Brexit to ensure companies can"move with the times".

Vikki Howells AM (Lab, Cynon Valley):

The number of people in employment in Wales stood at just over 1.4million, so automation could threaten 1 in 2 jobs. Companies may need to become smaller and more flexible with shorter supply chains.
We may "already be too late", MIT believes a four-fold increase in robots has already impacted on jobs and wages.
Management of natural resources will be a key part of the new industrial revolution; Wales already has significant expertise there.
It's a great chance to strengthen the further education sector; a school in her constituency won a robotics competition and it's encouraging to see they're already developing the skills they'll need for the future.

David Melding AM (Con, South Wales Central):

The period between 1945-1980 was a golden age of the blue collar worker, but a series of forces has impacted them including the digital revolution and globalisation; this has also led to "staggering" declines in global poverty.
The workforce is divided 50:50 between adaptable flexible workers and those who are nostalgic for stable lifetime employment.
We need to be very careful about moving away from seeing work as a central organising force in people's lives and start recognising the value in things like volunteering and civic/community work (....like being a blogger).

Jeremy Miles AM (Lab, Neath):

Automation could eliminate jobs in allparts of the economy, and not everyone will be able to take advantage of any new jobs created.
Automation generates bigger profits for companies and some of that has to be clawed back. Bill Gates advocates a levy on technology to fund public services.
We may need to look at how work is distributed, such as reductions in the working week or longer periods in education.
Automation needs to drive down costs of everyday basics – food, housing, transport – so a comfortable life is affordable in a world with less work. This could be done via a universal basic income and it's right to explore the options and pilot them.

David Rowlands AM (UKIP, South Wales East):

We live in a time of great promise but great peril. Better connections in technology can improve efficiency and undo the damage of previous industrial revolutions. However, it could also have a negative effect including the impact on semi and unskilled workers, increasing inequality and breaking down the structure of society.
The hospitality/tourism sector – one of Wales' s economic strengths – is an area where it will be difficult to replace humans with machines.

Rhianon Passmore AM (Lab, Islwyn):

Automation has means simple acts that were barely believable when the Assembly was established are now everyday realities (i.e. self-service checkouts). This has made life easier for consumers, but harder for workers and we read statistics without comprehending the meaning: a single job loss can cause huge damage.

Welsh Government Response & Summing Up

Economy & Infrastructure Secretary, Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South):

The debate overlaps with conversations he's had on the current approach to economic development and how that has to change.
The 700,000 figure isn't pure job losses, but animpact on jobs. New jobs would be created in data analysis, maintenance etc. but we still need to ensure every job loss can be replaced and the population has the skills to take those opportunities.
An independent report on the impact of automation for the Industry Wales body recognised the economic benefits – 94% of businesses agree digital technology is a great driver for growth, an example being (possible) 3D printed organs in the future.
The biggest challenges to Wales are regional economic differences and future-proofing the workforce - meeting them will require difficult decisions that go against conventional thinking.

Hefin David AM (Lab, Caerphilly):

He was pleased by the shared optimistic vision of the future, and it could even be altering the nature of politics with the cross-party agreement on the changing nature of work itself.
We often don't recognise transformational change in our daily lives (he cited Nokia feature phones once being commonplace but now supplanted by smartphones). Wales is proud of Admiral insurance, but could they be hit hard by artificial intelligence alongside bank branches and supermarket staff?
We need a coherent long-term commitment from Welsh Government to digital infrastructure so we can lead in new high-value industries and have a unique selling point for Wales.

The motion was agreed unanimously.

Before I turn to what individual parties should expect in the local elections in May, it's worth looking at councils likely to provide hotly-contested polls (in alphabetical order).

Caerphilly

(Pic : Wales Online)

Normally this would be a straight fight between Labour and Plaid Cymru for top dog position, but both face a challenge from UKIP and a small group of Independents headed up by former Labour anti-devolution campaigner, Nigel Dix.

The council has been caught up in a long-running saga revolving senior officer pay and neither Labour or Plaid come out of it untarnished but, as the incumbents, you would expect Labour to face the brunt of it, with Plaid picking up seats here and there.

I suppose whether Labour retain overall control depends on where the populist/anti-politics vote goes – UKIP or Independent.

Following some very strong results in the Assembly election in the region last May, UKIP now have a "heartland"and if they're going to get any big results in May it'll probably happen in the Gwent valleys; by my count they've put up 11 candidates in Caerphilly and you would expect Sam Gould to be elected at the very least. However, FPTP combined with crowded candidate lists make it more difficult for UKIP as there's no proportional representation to give them a leg-up.

Cardiff

All eyes will be on the capital and it could provide top-billing entertainment on May 4^th.

Next to Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire, Cardiff has been the most dysfunctional local authority in Wales. Some meetings have verged on punch-ups, while the Labour party's internal problems have provided stream after stream of bad headlines, defections, resignations and staggering incompetence – exemplified by the new bus station saga. Yet, somehow, Labour have done well in by-elections and I wouldn't at all be surprised if they remained the largest group. Cockroaches and nuclear attacks come to mind.

In terms of the challengers, it depends on where in the city you are. In the north it'll probably come from the Conservatives and Independents. In the centre and east from a combination of Lib Dems, Greens and Independents and in the west and south from Plaid Cymru.

Indeed, this election will be a bellwether for how the Lib Dems are recovering. They were publicly de-pantsed in 2012 after the sole hope for a good result in last year's Assembly election failed to materialise (Eluned Parrott). We live in a different Wales now though and if they can capitalise on the strong local Remain vote, as well as Labour's disorganisation, they could be on the brink of a major comeback. Will it be enough to take control? I'm sceptical.

It's unlikely the Conservatives will make any major breakthrough beyond wards in the Cardiff North constituency (see My Cardiff Northfor more), but you would expect them to make gains and if the Lib Dems have a particularly bad night it's possible they could overtake them into second place.

The next party to focus on is Plaid Cymru. They're building a solid base in western Cardiff with Neil McEvoy's populist showboating. That certainly isn't going down well with everyone, but I'd expect it to bear results and a significant number of Plaid councillors could be returned in May – maybe as many as 7-10 from wards like Fairwater, Ely, Caerau, Canton, Riverside and Grangetown.

Seeing as you wouldn't expect UKIP to do anything in Cardiff, the joker in the pack are the Greens. You would expect "studentville"wards like Roath and Cathays to be heavily targeted – though they'll be touching toes with the Lib Dems. Ralph Cook was one of the two present Green councillors in Wales, though as he's subsequently defected to the Lib Dems it's difficult to see where a Green breakthrough will now come from.

Carmarthenshire

Y Cneifiwr continues to provide the most comprehensive coverage here. I've also said enough about this council over the past few years, so I won't tread over old ground.

This dysfunctional dictatorship is a continuing embarrassment to Wales. The National Assembly and Welsh Government have consistently failed in their duty to rein in the Executive Board's indulgence of the Chief Executive and have, subsequently, let Wales down big time.

None of the three main players – Plaid Cymru, Independents and Labour – have done enough to convince me any of them deserve to win. Nevertheless, in the absence of major local government reforms someone has to.

What Carmarthenshire needs is political stability and change at the top– both in terms of councillors, constitutional arrangements and senior officers. I'd even say that following the apparent reneging of his promise to return any damages from the Thompson case to CCC, Mark James (and Linda Rees-Jones) should be sacked if he doesn't walk (as are the rumours reported elsewhere). Any costs of the action can recovered from what would be an undoubtedly generous severence package....or, professional legal opinion dependent, they might have a case to sue for breach of contract.

Plaid will be favourites not only to be the largest party, but probably get a controlling majority. That's the least-worst outcome as they're the only party who can win seats in every part of the county and it would hopefully bring that political stability I mentioned; but Emlyn Dole and all those who"changed their minds" on the libel indemnity still have to go, with hints former AM Rhodri Glyn Thomas might be ready to step in should he get elected.

Labour are in such a mess at the moment, particularly in their Llanelli stronghold – due in part to the PR disaster of aligning themselves with UKIP and other assorted oddballs over the Llangennech school row - it would be an upset if Plaid didn't win outright control of Carmarthenshire. That doesn't mean Labour couldn't make advances, it's just the chances of them being the largest party are slimmer than Plaid.

It would be very like Plaid to miss open goals, but if they don't manage to get over the line there's a prospect of another round of three-way in-fighting. The Independents are likely to lose out the most, though many of the organ grinders are standing down. Maybe that'll present opportunities for a new cadre of "proper independents"to make a breakthrough, adding to (People First) Sian Caiach in the council chamber - but as Cneifiwr said earlier this week there's been a paperwork foul-up that might cause problems.

Conwy

Having always been one of the most politically diverse parts of the country, Conwy is currently run by an Independent-Plaid-Labour coalition.

The county leans towards the Conservatives and if there's any party that could realistically achieve a majority it's the Tories. However, in the last couple of weeks the Tories have suffered three defections to Independents, including someone who was considered a"rising star" (Julie Fallon). It's realistically going to be between the Conservatives and Independents for largest party, but this might swing things back in the Independents' favour.

The Lib Dems have a foothold, but since losing their most prominent local personality (Mike Priestley) to Labour, it's a familiar story of decline. There's no reason why Labour couldn't at the very least keep their current 10 seats.

Plaid do reasonably well in Conwy, but due to demographic changes their chances of being the biggest party have receded. They can still count on a big vote in the county's southern rural hinterland which is heavily Welsh-speaking. There's a big turnover in Plaid candidates with a number standing down – including the current Council Leader - losing the incumbency factor. I doubt that'll affect them too much though.

Rhondda Cynon Taf

(Pic : Wales Online)

At the moment it's a landslide in favour of Labour, with them holding 81% of the seats.

Plaid Cymru will be expected to do something big; by that I mean winning 20+ seats on top of the 9 they already hold. As it's Leanne Wood's back garden you would expect the party to heavily target wards in the Rhondda Fawr and Rhondda Fach. However, the party once had a very strong presence in the Cynon Valley that's slowly disintegrated, while judging by what Glyn Morris at National Left hassaid, Plaid aren't putting up a strong showing in the southern Llantrisant/Pontyclun/Llanharry area either.

A green Rhondda and a red Pontypridd and Cynon Valley will be enough for Labour to keep control with Plaid advancing to a less distant second.

The interesting thing here will be the performance of the Cynon Valley Party – another hyperlocal party of Independents. I don't know how/why the party was established, but it's likely to be a similar story to Change for Bridgend and Newport Independents – disillusionment with party politics and/or people who are fed up with Labour in particular. If they can eat away at enough Labour votes to swing contests then maybe Labour won't have it all their own way after all.

Vale of Glamorgan

(Pic : penarthnews.wordpress.com)

This is going under the radar but worth keeping an eye on. The Vale usually swings between Labour and Conservative in parliamentary elections – often resulting in close contests - and until 2012 the Tories were the dominant force in local politics.

At the moment the council's run by a Labour-Independent coalition and Labour have an advantage in remaining strong in the two major urban centres of Barry and Penarth, which have a large number of small, multi-member wards.

The Conservatives rely on rural and semi-rural wards like Cowbridge, St Brides Major and Wenvoe. Llantwit Major has become a stronghold of Independents, while Plaid Cymru have been slowly building up a presence in Barry (alongside a traditionally strong base in Dinas Powys) and could pull of a few surprise results if they can go toe-to-toe with Labour in wards like Baruc, Buttrills and Castleland.

Then there's UKIP. They managed to win a seat (Kevin Mahoney in Sully) in 2012, but the councillor has since become Independent and is running under that banner. There are a few others running in other wards, but with the Vale-based Welsh Conservative leader, Andrew Davies AM, being vocal on Brexit, maybe that'll be enough to drag UKIP votes back to the Tories and swing a few contests in the Tory's favour.

The Vale is also in unique in having two Pirate Party candidates standing in St Athan and Castleland respectively. As only three candidates are standing in St Athan in total, we could see a record share of the vote for a Pirate candidate in Wales.

Wrexham

There've been big changes in Wrexham over the last few years. The single biggest development was a mass defection/resignation of Labour councillors because of a row over the future of the Plas Madoc leisure centre, which shifted control of the authority from Labour to Independents. It's a question of whether that position would be maintained and in the current climate I'm in no doubt it could be.

Labour will be desperate to retake control as it's become one of their prized northern strongholds – also home to two Cabinet Secretary constituencies - and its loss will have been an embarrassment.

There's been a significant increase in the number of Independents standing and if the non-Labour vote is split it could well help Labour (it wouldn't surprise me if, instead of being"Condependents", many Independent candidates are actually Labour by stealth for this very reason). Outright victory is probably within grasp for the Independents regardless.

The Lib Dems have a traditionally strong presence in the area and used to win double-figure number of seats – even out-polling Labour in 2008 – but that support has disintegrated. They would probably be pleased with keeping what they've already got. It's not exactly a Plaid Cymru stronghold either, but you would expect them to make one or two gains, probably at the expense of Labour.

Other local authorities to watch:

Anglesey – Plaid Cymru went close to taking control in 2013 having become largest party, but Independents and Labour kept them out of office. Judging by the performances of Plaid in recent elections you would expect them to get over the line and have a majority, but Anglesey always throws up surprises and the biggest surprise could be a Labour wipe-out on the island.

Bridgend– This won't rank highly up the list of most people's authorities to watch, but there are signs it's turning into a contest, even a nasty one in some cases. The smart money will be on Labour retaining overall control (or at least having the numbers to run the council as a minority group), but Independents look set to eat away at their vote following a bone-headed "purge"of Labour candidates and members last autumn (many of whom are now standing against The Party) as well as the establishment of the Change for Bridgend group - which has drawn support from all quarters. As you would expect I'll be taking a more detailed look at Bridgend over the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Neath Port Talbot– Like Bridgend, Labour should retain overall control, but Plaid Cymru will be looking to make significant gains after the resources thrown at the Aberavon constituency in recent elections. Plaid should be able to increase the number of seats by at least 50% (from 9 to 13/14) and there'll be questions asked if there aren't some gains. Also, there's been a similar Bridgend"purge"– a raft of Labour de-selections of veteran councillors creating Independents – which could spice things up in what would've otherwise been one of the more boring and predictable contests.

Swansea – Another bellwether for how the Lib Dems are recovering, though Labour are likely to end up on top at a reduced majority. The Conservatives, however, have managed to put up almost a full slate of candidates which is a surprise, while Plaid have managed to put up fewer council candidates in Swansea than Bridgend – another surprise. This is also one of the places you might expect the Greens to seriously compete for a seat.

(Pic : Wales Online)

Europe is currently going through its worst migration crisis since the end of the Second World War, and Wales is doing its part to shelter those fleeing the Syria in particular.

Although the refugee crisis isn't getting the same coverage as 2015, last week the Communities Committee published its report into refugees and asylum seekers (pdf).

Immigration is non-devolved, but the Welsh Government are responsible for essential services provided to refugees and asylum-seekers like education, health and other forms of support. There are estimates there could be anything between 6,000-10,000 refugees settled in Wales - equivalent to a town the size of Caernarfon.

A report in today's Guardian suggests five-times more asylum-seekers are dispersed to poorer areas of the UK than wealthier areas, while both Cardiff and Swansea rank in the top 10 local authorities housing asylum-seekers. So it's not a case of Wales "doing more" - we're clearly pulling, if not exceeding, our weight on this without any extra resources from Westminster.

I can't say I agree with all of the report's recommendations – public sector internships and treating asylum seekers and refugees as home students for instance. However, even if the report is out of step with the electorate's opinion on immigration, as is the case with any discussion of the subject it's brought out the worst in people despite the report itself being on mainly solid ground.

The Committee made 19 recommendations. In summary:

The Welsh Government should recover (from the UK Home Office) any additional costs resulting from the Immigration Act 2016.
The Welsh Government should "dispel myths and inaccuracies" about refugees and asylum-seekers.
Some services should be improved, or extended to, refugees and asylum-seekers including: concessionary bus travel, English language lessons, access to higher and further education, access to legal advice, housing complaints procedures, mental health services for unaccompanied children.
Urgent negotiations should take place with the UK Home Office on asylum accommodation reforms before contracts are renewed in 2019. Also, asylum landlords should be covered by the Rent Smart Wales registration scheme.
The Welsh Government should"do more"(no specifics) to find suitable housing for those awarded refugee status, and should discuss extending the 28 day"move-on" period for refugees (after their status has been granted) to 56 days.
A Guardianship Service should be established for unaccompanied child refugees.
Wales should aim to become a "Nation of Sanctuary".

How the Asylum & Refugee System Works

(Pic : National Assembly of Wales)

Once somebody arrives in the UK and claims asylum they're moved to nominated asylum accommodation and receive £36.95 a week (Section 95 support). They can't claim benefits but they can't work either.

If their claim is accepted, they gain refugee status and have 28 days to find their own accommodation, get a National Insurance number and either apply for benefits or find work.

If their claim is rejected, they have to leave the UK. They can apply for accommodation and £35.39 a week in financial support (Section 4 support) if they face hardships, but still have to prove they're trying to leave. It's also a criminal offence for landlords to rent to someone who's been denied leave to remain.

The system for"vulnerable" people fleeing Syria is much less hassle in comparison to "mainstream"asylum-seekers. People entering under this scheme have protected status for five years and are immediately eligible for services like education and employment. 397 people have been resettled in Wales under the Syrian scheme - per-head this is higher than England but lower than Scotland and Northern Ireland.

This "two-tier"asylum system – a bespoke one for Syrians, another for the rest - was criticised, with a belief it causes tensions between immigrant communities.

Although there's praise for how the Welsh Government responded to the refugee crisis, there's been criticism that refugee plans aren't fit for purpose. Swansea Council even went so far as to describe it as "weak", while there was also criticism of the emphasis on providing direct support to refugees, instead of supporting the communities they're resettled in.

The Committee were impressed by measures taken by the Scottish Government, which includes funding integration, extending youth concessionary schemes to young refugees and provide extra support for professionals.

Integration

Community cohesion (English: good relations between immigrants and residents) are vital for any new group, but particularly refugees and asylum-seekers. The Welsh Government have a cohesion strategy, but it was felt it was too focused on Cardiff and reacting to hate crime instead of addressing root causes.

An important part is understanding what immigrants can offer Welsh society. There are no skills audits of refugees, nor any strategy for refugees to acquire new skills. Nonetheless, the "Welcome to Wales"pack offered to new arrivals is well-received.

Community cohesion is hampered by a lack of access to services, particularly transport. An example was given of refugees and asylum-seekers in Newport being keen to volunteer, but unable to afford to travel.

Language barriers are another issue, with English classes over-subscribed and only run in certain areas, often by volunteers for a few hours a week. Meanwhile, there were worries over how refugees and asylum-seekers were depicted in the media, with immigration a major issue in the EU referendum and the subsequent rise in hate crimes.

Life through (and after) the Asylum Process

(Pic : BBC Wales)

One of the big concerns arising from the inquiry was the standard of asylum housing. Clearsprings Ready Homes have a five-year, £119million contract with the UK Home Office to provide asylum accommodation in Wales, but the quality of the housing provided and ineffective complaints procedures have been condemned, with some asylum-seekers said to be worried that complaining could prejudice their asylum applications.

There were calls for any new asylum housing contract to be awarded in Walesand the Committee believed the "complex relationship"between Welsh and UK governments on asylum housing was leading to a lack of responsibility.

Not all asylum-seekers go through health screenings after arrival, meaning those with long-term conditions being dispersed without knowing what their medical needs are. Some third sector bodies argued that legal advice should be offered "from day one"too, with services impacted by cuts to legal aid and general asylum support.

As mentioned earlier, once an asylum-seeker has their refugee status confirmed (unless they're entering via the vulnerable Syrian scheme) they have 28 days to support themselves ("move-on period"), or have to leave if their claim is rejected. More than 1,000 people in Newport and Cardiff have become destitute as a result, turning to the likes of the Red Cross for support.

There were calls for the Welsh Government to expand eligibility criteria for their discretionary crisis fund to include destitute asylum-seekers – as in Northern Ireland – while local authorities should class all new refugees as "vulnerable" to access housing (currently only a few councils in Wales do). As a result, the "move-on period"should match the statutory period for councils to find accommodation for the homeless in Wales – 56 days.

Asylum-seekers aren't allowed to work, but refugees are. Evidence suggests the skills of refugees aren't properly recognised by Job Centre Plus, and refugees should be encouraged to get any qualifications they've achieved abroad recognised in Wales and the UK. Similarly, refugees are treated as international students which, due to costs, places barriers on attending higher education – though specialist training programmes are provided for refugees who are doctors to meet English language standards to practice medicine in the UK.

Child Refugees

There are reportedly only 27 unaccompanied child refugees in Wales, though many will be moved elsewhere to be reunited with family members. The relatively low number was said to be due to the UK Home Office's dispersal method.

Witnesses want Wales to establish a Guardianship Service to provide independent support and advocacy services to child refugees which, based on a Scottish example, could cost £200,000 a year for every 200 children – but this could save money on services elsewhere. The Welsh Government cut funding for an existing refugee child advocacy service (Tros Gynnal), with a new service reportedly set to be launched this month (....minus details).

For young people who arrive without documentation, the immigration authorities need to determine how old they are as children are eligible for additional protections. There are 84 pages of guidance for age determination and it was said to be "totally unrealistic" for social workers to use that to undertake assessments.

Child refugees are also likely to have suffered serious mental stress. This is often due to sexual assault, with a study of unaccompanied children suggesting 50% had sexually-transmitted diseases.

In order to uphold the UN Convention on the Rights of Children (UNCRC), there were calls to properly assess the mental health of child refugees after they arrive and provide training and resources for foster carers and health professionals who may work with them.

The last day of term in the Senedd always seems to throw up curve balls, and just before AMs broke for Easter recess came the news – after a day of rumours and counter-rumours – that Mark Reckless had left UKIP to join the Conservative group.

He became the third AM (fourth if you include the temporary suspension of Neil McEvoy) to leave their party and/or party group in the space of a year (see also: Done up like a kipper?; Dic Sion Dafydd?).

Within days of the election result last May, I said:

"....the chances of UKIP remaining a seven-member group through the entire course of the Fifth Assembly are looking pretty slim....I'd be amazed if they last through to 2021 as they are. I'd expect the defections and resignations to start by the end of this year (2016)....it's a proud track record in any place where there are sizable number of UKIP members."

After Neil Hamilton usurped Nathan Gill as group leader, Mark Reckless would've been top of my list of potential defectors along with Caroline Jones (who's since pledged her loyalty).

So this was predictable, although a few weeks ago Mark Reckless said UKIP "speaks for Wales" and called for unity within UKIP. How quickly things change, eh?

It's unbelievable something so simple could turn out so complicated, but as the days have gone by it's developing into a crisis of Andrew Davies' making (more from ITV Wales' Adrian Masters).

What do we know so far?

Impact on the Senedd

Mark Reckless will join the Conservative Assembly group as an Independent AM. My understanding is he'll be subject to the Tory whip (have to vote the same way as Tory AMs) and for all intents and purposes would be considered a Tory for Assembly business, but won't take part in any group meetings and won't have a shadow portfolio.
With 12 members the Conservatives are the largest opposition group. Subsequently, Andrew Davies is Leader of the Opposition and party spokespeople are now shadow ministers. In practical terms this means a £1,000 salary bump for Andrew Davies, an additional ~£20,300 a year for the Conservative group (pdf - p42) and the Tories will have a bigger say in Assembly business. The opposite is the case for UKIP (£1,000 pay cut for Neil Hamilton, lose £20,300 a year, less say).
Mark Reckless has lost his position (and £13,000 a year) as Chair of the Environment Committee – he reportedly wanted to keep it. It was said elsewhere that Plaid Cymru will have to concede a Chair to the Tories (I'm not sure. I suspect the now vacant Environment Committee chair will be given to the Tories instead, which hints at David Melding being in line to take over as he's a member of that committee).

Internal Disagreements

Mark Reckless is a deeply divisive figure within the Conservative party since his defection to UKIP in 2014 and it's clear many MPs, and the central party, aren't happy with the decision, suggestions being that all sitting Tory AMs could face de-selection.
Conservative rules mean any member of the Conservative group needs to be a member of the party, but it's presently unclear whether Tory AMs voted to suspend their rules to allow Mark Reckless to join – Andrew Davies denies it, saying the meeting was minuted and all AMs agreed to let him join.
There's confusion over whether this was a unanimous decision, with reports over the weekend that once it became clear the central party may not support the move, 3 AMs voted against suspending the rules.
Nick Ramsay AM (Con, Monmouth) broke ranks on Sunday to say there were "major concerns"over the move and he was now unclear of his own status – something anonymous Conservative sources described as "opportunism"and an attempt to re-run his unsuccessful 2011 leadership bid.

Why this happened and the slow disintegration of UKIP are topics for another time. I don't think it's a coincidence Mark left UKIP within weeks of his other employer, Douglas Carswell MP, for whom he moonlights as a parliamentary researcher. It's still unclear whether he'll be allowed to keep that role, but you assume he would've been given the OK.

I'm very, very surprised Tory AMs are OK with this and you've got to wonder if doing it for the sake of opposition titles (which are, in practical terms, meaningless) and a modest funding boost is worth the hassle.

I'm in no doubt Mark pines for a return to that Hogwarts for Adults laughably called a parliament in London, so I don't see him sticking in Wales for the long haul. I also wonder how long it'll be before Nathan Gill is offered/seeks something similar.

The Other Big Questions

This defection raises questions over the the Alternative Member System (AMS) used to elect regional list members, whether by-elections should be called when AMs "cross the floor"as well as recall of AMs (see also: Total Recall).

Twenty AMs are elected regionally, whereby you vote for a party not a candidate and the seats are distributed based on the strength of the party vote and how many first-past-the-post seats the parties have already won.

Parties decide which candidates are ranked #1, #2 etc. and the system's been used to ensure gender balance and/or to ensure candidates who would struggle to get elected in a constituency stand a chance of an Assembly seat....like Mark Reckless, who has no ties to Wales and for whom the rules were bent to make sure he could get on the UKIP list in the first place.

It's happened before of course – Mohammad Asghar's defection from Plaid to the Conservatives in 2009. No by-election or resignations then either.

Mark Reckless was elected using UKIP resources and UKIP finances because people in South Wales East voted UKIP. I never thought I'd say this, but I can understand UKIP's anger here and have a smidgen of sympathy for them.

There's nothing in the rules that says he can't walk away from that and keep his seat, as resigning would defeat the purpose of defecting and there are no by-elections for regional list seats (because of how incredibly expensive it would be to run a by-election across a whole region and because of how list seats are calculated).

Even in first-past-the-post seats, it's ultimately a matter of conscience whether defecting members trigger a by-election, but they don't have to – Dafydd Elis Thomas being a case in point.

Under the Wales Act 2017 the Senedd has responsibility for its electoral arrangements, including the voting system. An expert group has been established to look at that in more detail.

If Wales introduced a system like single transferable vote (STV), then you get a proportional result in a constituency and voters get to choose who to elect from each party, not the party themselves. However, it still means defecting AMs wouldn't be compelled to force a by-election.

A solution to that problem (if Wales eventually adopts STV) is altering the Senedd's Standing Orders so that if someone wants to leaves one party group to join another party group (as opposed to simply becoming an Independent, being suspended or entering a formal coalition agreement) they have to resign within 30 days and trigger a by-election, or a by-election is triggered automatically.

Or, even under the current electoral system, if AMs leave a party they could be subject to a "cooling-off period" before they can join another party/party group – perhaps 2 years - forcing them to sit as a "proper" Independent.

(Pic : Wales Online)

What should the parties (and Independents) realistically expect in May?

In order to make the position clearer, I've divided councils into four categories:

Retain– Councils a party will be expected to retain control over, whether outright control or as a minority.
Win– Councils a party doesn't currently control but should realistically be able to take overall control of by themselves.
Progress - Councils where a party could win a respectable number of seats, but not to the extent they could take control by themselves; at most they could become a partner in a ruling coalition or have a blocking vote.
Bin – Local authorities where any signficant success is unlikely, maybe no more than the odd seat here and there. I won't bother listing these.

Labour

(Pic : BBC Wales)

Retain - Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Swansea, Torfaen
Win - Flintshire
Progress - Carmarthenshire, Denbighshire, Vale of Glamorgan, Wrexham

There's been some management of expectations by Labour as the 2012 result was as good as it gets for them, so the only way is down. It's simply a question of how far down. Labour in Wales have been (somewhat) shielded from Jeremy Corbyn's electoral concrete shoes (which would make a great band name). I'd assume that within the party there's an expectation of a number of losses, but maybe not quite to the extent of a "disaster".

With that in mind, Labour will want to keep councils not necessarily seats– by that I mean they'd probably be willing to sacrifice unsafe seats they won with paper candidates in 2012 to shore up their safe ones and prevent authorities in the south going firmly to no overall control. This would enable Labour to run them as, at the very least, a minority.

There'll be a floor of around 520 seats. Anything less than that is straying into "bad night"territory if they lose councils too, while falling below 500 or losing their top dog position is "really bad night"territory. The only council you can see Labour winning outright that they don't currently control is Flintshire.

Independents

Retain – Pembrokeshire, Powys
Win - Wrexham
Progress – Bridgend, Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Monmouthshire, Ynys Mon

It's difficult to set any real targets because there's no single "Independent"party, but you would expect Independents to want to maintain their position as the second largest grouping in Welsh local government and for former Labour councillors to take seats off their former party in places like Bridgend and Neath Port Talbot.

A number of local/county-specific parties have sprung up recently (Change for Bridgend, Newport Independents, Cynon Valley Party) and it's hard to tell what impact they'll have on the results. They may, in the end, simply split the opposition vote and enable the dominant party – whether Labour, Plaid or anyone else – to retain seats. Or, they could indeed take a sizable number of seats, becoming a more credible populist alternative to UKIP.

The onward march of Independents could be the big story from the elections, though one thing I can say that all of you reading this will agree with is I hope the (former) Gravell-Palmer "Independent Party" in Carmarthenshire is wiped out – proof positive that not all "Independents" are good news or well-intentioned.

Plaid Cymru

(Pic : Plaid Cymru)

Retain - Gwynedd
Win – Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Ynys Môn
Progress– Caerphilly, Cardiff, Conwy, Neath Port Talbot, Rhondda Cynon Taf

Plaid will want to finish top in Y Fro Gymraeg and make significant progress in a number of authorities in the south – particularly Cardiff and Caerphilly (RCT may be too much of an uphill struggle). I'd assume they'd want to retain the numbers to remain in ruling coalitions in Conwy and Denbighshire too.

I see no reason why they couldn't at the very least regain everything they lost in 2012 and add a healthy number of seats on top. So the target will probably be between 200-220 seats and/or winning outright control of all four of their key authorities: Gwynedd, Ceredigion, Anglesey and Carmarthenshire. That would be a good night.

220+ seats, with big gains in Cardiff, Neath Port Talbot and Rhondda Cynon Taf - as well as being in a position to take minority control of Caerphilly (as in 2008) - would count as a great night.

Conservatives

(Pic : Welsh Conservatives)

Retain– N/A
Win– Conwy, Monmouthshire
Progress– Cardiff, Denbighshire, Powys, Swansea, Vale of Glamorgan

The Tories did pretty badly in 2012, losing more than 60 seats. The lack of competitive by-elections since than hasn't changed their position. They're down to their core so I wouldn't expect them to lose many more seats than they currently hold (it would be very bad news for them if they did).

A modest increase in the number of seats – perhaps to the 120-130 mark – will be a step in the right direction, even if it means only picking up an extra seat or two in places like Denbighshire, Bridgend and Cardiff.

I assume the Tories will want to retake overall control of Monmouthshire, be in a position to take control of Vale of Glamorgan and make big progress in (northern) Cardiff, Conwy and Swansea due to the number of candidates put forward. Other than that I don't think people should expect miracles.

Liberal Democrats

(Pic : BBC Wales)

Retain – N/A
Win – N/A
Progress – Cardiff, Ceredigion, Powys, Swansea

It's a big test for the Lib Dems. They usually run a pretty tight ship at a local level, but they're now also-rans and practically invisible in mainstream politics. Kirsty Williams has been neutered since becoming Education Secretary, while the party have been decimated in both the Assembly and Westminster. But, as one of the the most pro-EU parties, maybe they can harness the Remain vote in urban and student-laden areas to make a comeback in places they've traditionally been strong in like Swansea and Cardiff.

Last year it would've been a case of "don't get wiped out" but the picture has improved and you would expect the Lib Dems to keep what the currently have and make some progress to maybe around 80-85 seats. That would be a good showing all things considered. Nevertheless, they shouldn't be expecting to take control of any councils by anything other than a coalition arrangement.

Minor Parties

↑ They're the big boys and girls thanks (mainly) to the electoral system. The following only have a combined 11 seats between them, with 7 of those going to Llais Gwynedd. Yes it was tempting to put the Lib Dems here too, but their predicament isn't funny anymore and like it or not they do still retain a major presence in some councils.

UKIP

Caerphilly or bust for UKIP?
(Pic : Guardian)

Retain – N/A
Win– N/A
Progress – N/A - Win any seats in Caerphilly, Torfaen, Vale of Glamorgan

This election will determine whether 2016 was a flash in the pan, or UKIP really are the fifth party in Welsh politics. Having AMs is fine, but they need the infrastructure on the ground to maintain their position and that means having a significant number of seats in local authorities. All the seats they won last May can be wiped out with a modest shift in regional votes and councillors often do the legwork on the ground.

The referendum vote is arguably the worst thing to happen to UKIP as a party. You've got to ask yourselves, "What's the point of UKIP?"That's a question worth returning to in its own right another time perhaps.

Clearly UKIP has a problem keeping members and resembles a zombie party – the body's dead but still tepid and nobody's willing to give them the peace of death.

It's not a case of wanting to win seats, they need to win them – 10 at a minimum I would say, spread around south Wales, particularly the former county of Gwent. Anything less than that or in single figures means UKIP are stuck where they are until the local government electoral system changes, or have become a complete irrelevance now Theresa May is the Brexit ringmaster.

Greens

Retain– N/A
Win– N/A
Progress– N/A - Win any seats in Cardiff, Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Swansea

They have a new leader, which I'm sure you all heard about....No?....I'll move on then.

I don't think the stakes for the Greens are quite as high as UKIP because they're not facing any existential threat. They can't point to something like the EU referendum and say "job done, we can pack up and go home"because they haven't achieved anything, at any level, at any time, ever. That doesn't mean they don't have good ideas, they just haven't translated it into any sort of success yet.

So in that vein, to be frank winning anything would count as an achievement; 3 seats at county level would be a pretty good night. There's nowhere you can point to and say the Greens will definitely win a seat (under STV things might be different), but you've got to assume counties/cities that contain wards with large student populations will be most likely.

Llais Gwynedd

Llaid Gwynedd are, by far, one of the most successful localist parties in Wales and are still going, putting 16 candidates which -considering the number of defections from the party over the last five years (mainly to Plaid Cymru) - is actually not that bad going.

Plaid are already, by some estimates, guaranteed 18 seats through uncontested wards and by virtue of having two of three candidates in a 2 seat ward.

In most cases Llais Gwynedd are competing solely with Plaid, with Plaid even putting up former Llais Gwynedd members. This makes their task more difficult and - from the 14 seats they won in 2012 - you could only see them hanging on to, at best, 3 or 4 with the outside chance of a complete wipe-out. If they can keep what they've already got as of now (7 seats) that would be a good result - but you don't see them being able to prevent Plaid getting a majority.

With my look at the all-Wales picture over and done with, I'll take a break over Easter then turn my attentions exclusively to the local elections in Bridgend.

As you probably all know by now, on June 8th we'll have a snap UK General Election....if/when the House of Commons votes for one tomorrow. I won't come back to it until after the local elections are well out of the way.

In the meantime, on May 4^thelectors across Wales will go to the polls to elect new councils. After five years in charge, here's my verdict on how Labour have performed in Bridgend.

Finance

C

A running theme in local government over the last term was cuts. Bridgend Council (BCBC) have had to do the same amount of work with less, though that was eased somewhat in the latest budget.

Some budget pressures are unavoidable due to an ageing population and changes to the law on how social services and social care need to be provided. Others come down to harsh choices – the recent decision to cut the schools budget, for instance.

I'd say that, by and large, the cuts have been spread out and every council department has had its fair share of pain – including staff. A consequence is increased outsourcing, downsizing and reliance on the voluntary/Third Sector (Halo and Awen, for instance) which relinquishes some element of democratic control and may - in the longer term - lead to justified questions over what local government has to do and what they can afford to drop.

Planning

A

The last five years has seen the implementation of the Local Development Plan (LDP) – a process which will restart during the coming five-year term. The only serious problem I can think of is the Parc Slip opencast restoration but that's beyond BCBC's control and limited progress has been made.

From what I've seen of Planning Committee meetings, councillors ask good questions and are given appropriate and detailed answers by officers.

The latest all-Wales planning performance report (pdf) revealed BCBC has one of the fastest application turn around rates at 60 days, compared to the Welsh average of 77. They're also successful in 80% of appeals (Wales 66%) and are amongst the fastest local authorities to take enforcement action and respond to enforcement complaints.

Waste & Recycling

Big changes are coming in June , but even before then
Bridgend's recycling performances have slipped.

C

Ignoring the future"two bag rule"for a moment, rubbish collections over the last five years have been "satisfactory". However, Bridgend has gone from one of the top recyclers to mid-table in a short period of time. With the prospect of big fines from the Welsh Government it may have led to the controversial new rubbish collection proposals being implemented.

In 2015-16, Bridgend recycled or re-used 59% of the rubbish compared to the Welsh average of 62% (pdf - p2). We're not far behind....until you add fly-tipping statistics. In 2011-12 there were 684 recorded fly-tipping incidents in Bridgend, by 2015-16 that had risen to 1,086. Could the new waste contract lead to things getting worse?

There've also been well-publicised complaints about: missed collections, changes to business collections and inconvenient locations of local recycling centres. The service has noticeably worsened since Kier bought out May Gurney, but things could go downhill rapidly if the new waste collection service doesn't hit the ground running in June.

Economic Development & Regeneration

D

If this were based on the second half of the term the grade would be higher, but I have to judge it on the full five years.

The term has been marked by the "recovery"from the Great Recession and, economically-speaking, Bridgend hasn't done as badly as other authorities - which is lucky. Concerns over the future of the Ford engine plant aside, the big issue is the future of town centres.

Efforts to regenerate Pencoed will be hamstrung by the level crossing, but it's unlikely the bridges will be modified/replaced for a long time as Cardiff-Swansea electrification keeps getting pushed back. Maesteg town centre has had a sympathetic revamp but there are question marks over the future of the indoor market.

I doubt the Rhiw Gateway will be a game-changer for Bridgend. It's better than what was there before but not at the level needed to make a difference and I doubt de-pedestrianisation will make much of a difference either. With a lack of money around and changes in shopping habits we'll have to make the best of what we've got and that's going to be difficult regardless of who's in power.

Then there's Porthcawl. In fairness progress has been made on event/tourism development, the Jennings Building and the harbour, but as for Salt Lake and Coney Beach – it's dead, isn't it? It's about time BCBC admitted it. The Wales Audit Office ought to investigate the land deal, so that's an appeal to AMs or their staff reading this to refer it to them (I'm surprised they haven't already).

Parks, Playgrounds & Cemeteries

(Pic : Bridgend Council)

C+

"A bit better than satisfactory"sums it up. This is an area BCBC shares responsibility with town and community councils so not everything can be pinned on them.

Maintenance of equipped play areas seems to vary depending on where in the county you are, but in general they look safe but aren't always the most inviting places.

One noticeable thing in this period of austerity is less regular grass cutting – which could be a weather issue as much as costs. There are also drainage problems in the Coychurch Crematorium extension (again usually a weather issue) – which is due to eventually be extended again.

Dog fouling isn't as bad as it used to be but there are still "hot spots" and it's still left on pavements – which hints at lax enforcement by BCBC. Then there's the controversial decision to either close public toilets or hand responsibility over to town and community councils. Some of these toilets seemed poorly-maintained or in the wrong places anyway (like the ones under the Rhiw), but this could turn out to be an inconvenience in the longer run and not the best advert.

Highways

C

Considering the pressure the highways budget has been under – it's usually low down the list of priorities - council staff have done well. That doesn't mean there haven't been problems: streets off main roads are often poorly maintained, as are pavements and some rights of way. There's also a big problem with poor surfaces on unadopted roads (Parc Derwen being a case in point) – planning conditions perhaps need to be strengthened there.

BCBC have successfully overseen the conversion of streetlights into low energy (but often brighter) LED ones - meaning they can be kept on for longer, lessening the the threat of them being turned off to save money(as existed a few years ago).

There are questions as to whether road safety is being properly factored into new developments, as well as long-standing concerns over the A48, the road between Bryncethin and Blackmill and congestion at major junctions – particularly J36 of the M4. Another persistent bugbear is BCBC's attitude to free parking in town centres.

Leisure & Cultural Services

B

I doubt everyone will agree, but the partnership between BCBC and Halo Leisure appears to be going pretty well. Visits to sports and leisure centres are above the Welsh average with Bridgend pushing towards the better performing authorities in Wales (pdf - p26).

As far as I know no leisure centre services have been threatened, while Bridgend Rec has undergone a significant redevelopment - though whether the service is better now than before is up for question following a downsizing of the facilities. The proposed re-development of Maesteg Town Hall into a "cultural hub"could also have been better explained and managed.

The library service in Bridgend was recently praised, with the re-location of Bridgend library being successful despite initial concerns. Overall satisfaction levels with the library service stand at a whopping 97%.

Schools

Shiny new buildings. Not quite so shiny outcomes yet.
(Pic : EDQuarter)

B-

If this were based solely on building new schools then it would probably be an A, but even when you look at school results in isolation performances are above expectations but not spectacularly so.

In 2017, most schools in Bridgend county were either in the top "green"or average"yellow"bands of the Welsh Government's school banding system. 11 schools were in the"needs improvement"orange band, while no schools in the bottom"red" category.

In 2016, Bridgend secured improved GCSE results for the fifth year in a row (67.2% achieving 5 A*-C grades) – reportedly the "best ever"– and above the Welsh average (66.6%). There's a similar picture with A-Levels. However, average points score performances are....average at best (pdf - p21).

The only black marks are teething problems at some of Bridgend's flagship new schools, like Archishop McGrath RC High and Coleg y Dderwen, which have either (temporarily) ranked poorly in school rankings or been caught up in other problems – in the case of the former an art exam scandal. You can argue that too much money is being pumped into capital spending and not enough on actually running the schools.

Social Services

C- (Adult), D- (Child)

Some of the big developments here include the implementation of the Social Services & Wellbeing Act – which is supposed to result in a more personalised service – as well as the gradual outsourcing of"home helps"/domiciliary care. In the case of the latter, companies providing similar services in other local authorities have pulled out of contracts due to lack of funding and the implementation of the living wage (care workers are poorly paid as it is) – BCBC will need to be careful it doesn't happen here, but we can at least say we have a very low "bed blocking" rate (pdf - p15).

There've been particular concerns in Bridgend over the recruitment and retention of social workers, with recruitment agencies driving up the price of hiring experienced staff, leading to shortages of workers or an over-reliance on inexperienced trainees (Recruitment problems stifle Bridgend social services).

I don't think there've been any significant complaints about services for looked-after children (apart from how some things are administered), but there have been over foster placements - with Bridgend having one of the highest rates of cared-for children having three or more placements during a year (pdf - p19). One slip up there can have a devastating effect on a young person's life.

The most recent example is the Public Services Ombudsman review, where BCBC initially refused to repay more than £3,000 to a former looked-after child after his savings were poorly monitored. BCBC eventually did the right thing, but hid behind the rules. It's completely unacceptable whichever way you look at it.

There are, unquestionably, serious problems here that will need to be addressed by the incoming administration because I suspect there are bubbling scandals that haven't been made public yet, and when they are....

Internal Administration

C

Compared to Carmarthenshire's Mark James, Bridgend's Chief Executive (Darren Mepham) is a saint. No autocracy here. Though officers still hold sway, Bridgend isn't quite an "officer-led"authority. I've seen councillors argue robustly against official recommendations (planning mainly) and officers have taken suggestions on board properly.

Sickness levels amongst BCBC staff rank as the 6^th worst of the 22 Welsh councils (pdf - p27) and high sickness levels are usually the first sign of serious morale problems.

As is a typical problem in the public sector, the internal management structure seems convoluted with too many chiefs. I've heard horror stories about the standard of personnel management in some BCBC departments - particularly by lower and mid-ranked managers: nepotism, dubious promotions, bullying. With the council likely to shrink to no more than a third of the size it was in 1996, these problems can only get worse, while the introduction of things like"hot-desking" (as office functions are centralised on Angel Street) will no doubt be a culture shock.

Openness, Transparency & Public Engagement

How long before the Gazette suffers the same fate as other local newspapers?
(Pic : media.info)

D

I hate buzzwords, but "engagement"by local authorities is more important than ever due to declines in local press reporting.

It's likely that part of the reason groups like Change for Bridgend have emerged (as well as the local Facebook pages) is many people don't feel like they're listened to, believe decisions are either approved before they go out for consultation or not explained very well, and perhaps don't understand what councillors can do - their role being reduced in many respects to a glorified rubber stamp.

Most stuff coming out of BCBC is PR fluff; alright you would expect that, but the amount of objective/neutral reporting is thin on the ground. Part of that is because the Glamorgan Gazette isn't what it used to be (and Bridge FM isn't geared to cover local politics), part of it is lack of transparency by the council - which leads to people jumping to conclusions to fill information gaps or resorting to FOI requests.

BCBC have made some steps to building up its social media presence and have a pretty good public inquiries/front of house service (by all accounts), but it's not enough. The website is about 10 years out of date for a start. We need to be far better informed about how councillors are holding officers and cabinet members to account as well as decisions made on our behalf.

(Click to enlarge)

There are 39 wards in Bridgend and for the first time they're all being contested, meaning nobody will be elected unopposed.

The finalised list of candidates was released a few weeks ago, but instead of having to trawl through the official notice (pdf), you can trawl through this instead.

Firstly, here's a list of the councillors standing down (in alphabetical order by party and seat):

Independent: Mel Winter (Aberkenfig), Wyn Davies (Caerau), Luke Ellis (Pyle)
Labour: David Pugh (Blaengarw), Mike Gregory (Felindre), Gareth Phillips (Oldcastle), Reg Jenkins (Pontycymer), Clive James (Pyle), Pauline James (Pyle), Mel Nott (Sarn), Lyn Morgan (Ynysawdre)
Lib Dem: Gerald Davies (Rest Bay)

There are also two vacancies - Megan Butcher (Ind, Cornelly) and David Sage (Lab, Brackla) - both of whom have, sadly, died in the last couple of weeks. Megan was the first mayor of Bridgend County Borough, while David Sage was a former Deputy Leader and leading figure in the local Labour party who had endured ill health for some time.

Due to the large number of Independents standing this year I've had to distinguish between them. Those who are standing as part of a mutually-endorsing group (i.e. Change for Bridgend) will be listed as such. Those standing in their own right and not under the banner of any formal or informal group are listed as "Unaffiliated".

Candidates are listed in alphabetical order by party then by surname.Incumbent candidates seeking re-election are in italics.

Aberkenfig (1 seat)

Independent (Change for Bridgend): Lee Robson
Labour: Daryl Gordon
Plaid Cymru: James Radcliffe

Bettws (1 seat)

Conservative: Christian Wallis
Labour: Martyn Jones
UKIP: Glenda Davies

Blackmill (1 seat)

Independent (Change for Bridgend): Andrew McKay
Labour: Hywel Williams

Blaengarw (1 seat)

Independent (Change for Bridgend): Sorel Dendy
Labour: Gareth Andrews

Brackla (4 seats)

Conservative: Tom Giffard, Aniel Pucella, Kay Rowlands, Tyler Walsh
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Shaun Bastin, Stuart Charles, Nathan Goldsworthy, Marcelle Humphreys
Independent (Unaffiliated): Jeremy Young
Labour: Ciaron Jackson, Craig Jones, Hailey Townsend, John Spanswick
Plaid Cymru: Nick Thomas

Bryncethin (1 seat)

Independent (Change for Bridgend): Luke Richards
Independent (Unaffiliated): Mark John
Labour: Gary Thomas
Plaid Cymru: Nick Alderton

Bryncoch (1 seat)

Independent (Change for Bridgend): Beth Ellis
Labour: Janice Lewis
Plaid Cymru: Sara Thomas

Bryntirion, Laleston & Merthyr Mawr (2 seats)

Conservative: Gordon Lewis, Wayne Warlow
Greens: Kathy Lewis
Labour: Pam Davies, Ian Griffiths
Lib Dems: Cheryl Green, Ian Spiller

Caerau (3 seats)

Independent (Llynfi Independents): Phil John, Stephen Smith, Jen Terry
Labour: Paul Davies, Gareth Howells, Phil White
Plaid Cymru: Kyle Duggan

Cefn Cribwr (1 seat)

Conservative: Betty Kettley
Labour: Huw David
Plaid Cymru: Kevin Burnell

Cefn Glas (1 seat)

Conservative: Jamie Evans
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Paul Warren
Independent (Unaffiliated): Cleone Westwood
Labour: Jon-Paul Blundell

Coity (1 seat)

Conservative: James Davies
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Amanda Williams
Independent (Unaffiliated): Ella Dodd
Labour: Jamil Ramsey

Cornelly (2 seats)

Conservative: Rosemary Deere, Mary Emment-Lewis
Independent (Unaffiliated): Dorian Morgan, Jeff Tildesley, Lopper Wilson
Labour: Richard Granville, Gemma Hartnoll

Coychurch Lower (1 seat)

Conservative: Louise Barham
Independent (Unaffiliated): Elaine Venables
Labour: Matthew Churchill
Lib Dems: Briony Davies
Plaid Cymru: Richard Jenkins

Felindre (1 seat)

Conservative: John Butcher
Independent (Unaffiliated): Simon Curwood
Labour: Bridie Sedgebeer

Hendre (2 seats)

Conservative: Jamie Wallis, Julia Williams
Labour: John McCarthy, Richard Williams
Plaid Cymru: Vivienne Jenkins

Litchard (1 seat)

Conservative: Sadie Vidal
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Alan Wathan
Labour: Cherie Jones

Llangeinor (1 seat)

Independent (Change for Bridgend): Roz Stirman
Labour: Marlene Thomas

Llangewydd & Brynhyfryd (1 seat)

Conservative: Claire Lewis
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Eric Hughes
National Front: Adam Lloyd
Labour: Charles Smith
Lib Dems: Tony Berrow

Llangynwyd (1 seat)

Greens: Tom Muller
Labour: Elaine Guscott
Plaid Cymru: Malcolm James

Maesteg East (2 seats)

Independent (Llynfi Independents): Tom Beedle, Keith Edwards
Labour: Martin Rose, Mal Reeves
Plaid Cymru: Illtyd ap Dafydd

Maesteg West (2 seats)

Independent (Llynfi Independents): Dave Evans, Ross Thomas
Independent (Unaffiliated): Ian Jones, Robert Vincent
Labour: Richard Collins, Ceri Reeves
Plaid Cymru: Dai Berry, Paula Thomas

Morfa (2 seats)

Conservative: Judith Butcher, Tom Overfield
Greens: John Evans
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Stephen Bletsoe, Martin Williams
Independent (Unaffiliated): Peter Foley
Labour: Stuart Baldwin, Nicole Burnett

Nantymoel (1 seat)

Independent (Unaffiliated): David Owen
Labour: Sandy Blackburn

Newcastle (2 seats)

Conservative: Craig Lawton, Carolyn Webster
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Tim Wood, David Unwin
Labour: Neelo Farr, David White

Newton (1 seat)

Conservative: Ken Watts
Independent (Porthcawl Independents): Graham Walter
Labour: Will Hingley
Lib Dems: Jonathan Pratt

Nottage (1 seat)

Conservative: Robert Lee
Independent (Porthcawl Independents): Norah Clarke*
Labour: Paul Winstanley

*Currently sitting as a Lib Dem

Ogmore Vale (1 seat)

Independent (Unaffiliated): Louvain Lake
Labour: Dhanisha Patel
Plaid Cymru: Richard Shakeshaft

Oldcastle (2 seats)

Conservative: Matthew Voisey, Lyn Walters
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Freya Bletsoe, Rebecca Porter
Independent (Unaffiliated): Edith Hughes
Labour: Angela Morelli, Gary Sassoon-Hales

Pendre (1 seat)

Conservative: Kevin Edgar
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Dean Barrington
Labour: Richard Young
Lib Dems: Anita Davies

Penprysg (1 seat)

Conservative: Alex Williams
Labour: Alex Owen
Plaid Cymru: Leanne Lewis

Penyfai (1 seat)

Conservative: Altaf Hussein
Independent (Unaffiliated): Meryl Wilkins
Labour: Heidi Bennett
Plaid Cymru: Sarah Parry

Pontycymer (1 seat)

Independent (Change for Bridgend): Claire Walters
Labour: Rod Shaw

Porthcawl East Central (1 seat)

Conservative: Bobby Lewis
Independent (Porthcawl Independents): Brian Jones
Labour: Raynor Lewis

Porthcawl West Central (1 seat)

Conservative: Alun Thomas
Independent (Porthcawl Independents): Sean Aspey
Labour: Alana Davies

Pyle (3 seats)

Conservative: Phil Barham, David Deere, Ann Lee
Labour: Jane Gebbie, Mike Kearn, Stephen Smith
Plaid Cymru: Rhys Watkins

Rest Bay (1 seat)

Conservative: Caroline Vaughan
Green: Alex Harris
Independent (Porthcawl Independents): Mike Clarke
Labour: John Bunker

Sarn (1 seat)

Conservative: Irina Scelkunova
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Sally Hyde
Labour: David Lewis
Plaid Cymru: Nicola Thomas

Ynysawdre (1 seat)

Independent (Unaffiliated): Charles Lavis, Haydn Morgan
Labour: Fadhel Abelalkarim
Plaid Cymru: Tim Thomas

So of the 173 candidates standing:

Labour: 54
Independents: 53

(Change for Bridgend: 23)
(Unaffiliated: 18)
(Llynfi Independents: 7)
(Porthcawl Independents: 5)

Conservative: 36
Plaid Cymru: 18
Lib Dems: 6
Greens: 4
National Front: 1
UKIP: 1

Are these big green lorries about to deliver a big steaming pile of s**t for Labour?
(Pic : Local Government Chronicle)

The next few posts will go over the key issues in Bridgend's local election. This isn't an unlimited list and I'm sure all of you have your own concerns you would want to raise with candidates yourselves. Today, I start by asking what key issues will affect everyone in Bridgend county regardless of where they live?

1. Rubbish Collections: "Bin Police"& The Two Bag Rule

This is the big doorstep issue and you know it is.

Yes, you can argue there are more important things to be worried about but this has genuinely got people talking. I'm not saying it's going to swing the election, but it'll have an impact as – other than highways – it's the only council service everyone in the county uses.

Bridgend has a spike in young families (that means pets, nappies and DIY-related waste) and there are some places – the Wildmill estate comes to mind – where rubbish collections have to be done communally due to the street layouts, meaning hiking your rubbish or recycling to a central location. This will make enforcing the two bag rule harder.

In my own part of Bridgend a sizable minority of households regularly put out many as 4 or 5 black bags a fortnight, and while there's no doubt most of it will be non-recyclable, you can see they still have things like cardboard inside them. They're in for a rude awakening when the fines start coming and will no doubt complain, "We didn't know."

The policy has been poorly communicated, there's still confusion over what can or can't be recycled and the council have under-estimated what impact the new contract could have on businesses and multiple occupancy homes.

We should be able to recycle things like polystyrene by now (it can be recycled) and things like garden waste collections should be free.

What the parties/candidates are saying (all of which are based on recent reports in the Glamorgan Gazette):

Labour have no choice but to support the new scheme as they signed it off, but have made a commitment that fortnightly black bag collections would continue for the five-year term.
Change for Bridgend accept any review of recycling and waste reduction will have to take place "within the constraints of the new contract", but will look to review the contract with an eye to raising the black bag limit and/or increasing the amount of material that can be recycled.
The Conservatives want to renegotiate the contract with Kier and introduce a scheme to incentivise recycling (they haven't explained what precisely they mean by that)
Plaid Cymru"oppose"the two bag limit but haven't, to date, outlined what they would do differently.
The Lib Dems want to use clauses in the new contract to "alleviate any problems where they exist".

2. Cuts to Schools

This is the second big issue. BCBC are set to cut just under £3.5million from schools over the next four years (1% cuts each year, as outlined in their most recent budget). This is despite Bridgend ranking 21^st out of 22 Welsh councils for spending-per-pupil.

Despite the relatively low funding levels it hasn't affected outcomes with Bridgend performing reasonably well compared to Welsh averages.

It's also true that savings can be made through cutting down on surplus places, but it's highly likely most of the cuts will fall on staff – meaning teachers and support staff being made redundant. There've been estimates as many as 80 teachers in Bridgend could lose their jobs (40 secondary, 40 primary).

What the parties are saying:

Again Labour will have to defend the cuts because they signed them off. They want to invest up to £1.5million in free nursery placements for 3-year-olds and continue investment in new school buildings.
Both the Conservatives and Lib Dems have made commitments to reversing the 1% cut.

3. Future of Local Libraries & Cultural Services

(Pic : Bridgend Council)

The good news is that recent figures show that the number of people – particularly under-24s – using libraries has increased, with 51% of 16-24 year olds now using public libraries (I don't know what the Bridgend-only figures are). As mentioned earlier this week, satisfaction levels with Bridgend's libraries are also at extraordinarily high levels.

Nevertheless, when it comes to spending libraries are low down the list of priorities. Along with cultural services, they tend to be placed towards the bottom in budget consultations and that means that they'll probably be in line for significant cuts over the next few years.

Bridgend has "outsourced" the running of libraries and cultural services to Awen Cultural Trust, so in many respects responsibility lies with them, but BCBC still control a large part of the budget.

There've been no mention of closures and I don't think it'll happen as long as people keep using the services. Instead, we should probably expect reductions in services (i.e. shorter opening hours, staff redundancies, smaller grants for arts projects) over the next five years.

4. Adult Social Care & Looked-After Children

Social care is one of the big spending items for Bridgend Council, and with an ageing population demand for services are expected to increase with not much extra cash to fund it.

A significant chunk of domiciliary care services (aka. "home help") are already being outsourced to a number of private companies. On the residential care side of things, there's been an investment in new "extra care"facilities which will hopefully help continue Bridgend's good record of preventing "bed blocking"– but such facilities can be expensive.

There's also the chance the maximum limit councils can charge for care (currently £60 a week) – set by the Welsh Government – could rise in the next few years. The Welsh Government are already phasing in an increase in the amount of savings people going into care can keep for themselves, but there's no such commitment to keep care charges where they are.

On the children's care side of things, it's clear there's a need for urgent improvements, particularly when it comes to fostering and safeguarding children in residential care – there've been concerns raised that the location of children's homes in Bridgend puts children at risk of abuse, leading to some children being moved out-of-county at great expense.

As mentioned previously, Bridgend has one of the worst records in Wales when it comes to providing looked-after children with stability, being ranked towards the top for placing children with multiple foster families in a calendar year.

The incoming council will have big choices to make. Will they/are they able to cut other services to maintain social care? Will more care services be outsourced or privatised? Can we expect big council tax hikes?

What the parties are saying:

Labour want to continue investment in "extra care" homes as an alternative to residential care.
Plaid Cymru want to reverse cuts to respite services for full-time carers and also want to invest more in services used by the elderly (precisely what hasn't been explained yet).

5. Improving Engagement with Bridgend Council

(Pic : Copyright Jaggery and licensed for reuse under the Creative Commons Licence)

We're fortunate the Glamorgan Gazette is still going, even if it's 70% adverts, 30% news nowadays, but I honestly fear for its medium-term future like most other print newspapers in Wales. Yes, you can point to Bridge FM, Wales Online and even this site as attempting to to fill the gap, but there are limits to what I can do and it won't be around forever either.

The local Facebook pages – and there are a number of them in Bridgend - do an excellent job of flagging up local concerns and immediate breaking local news; they can be entertaining as well. When it comes to the nitty gritty, on some occasions they fuel over-reactions that feed the cynicism and populism that's eating away at politics. They are, nevertheless, now a vital part of the local media scene, but it's time for BCBC themselves to become more open.

Every meeting should be webcast. Councillors should be given more leeway to table motions for debate (full council meetings should become more of an "event"). The way BCBC communicates with the public needs an overhaul too; less PR fluff, more plain English in official reports, more objective facts and honesty please.

What the candidates are saying:

Change for Bridgend have made a commitment to be more open and undertake"meaningful"public consultations. They also propose a rolling programme of locally-focused capital projects undertaken with town and community councils - who would have a bigger role.
You would assume Plaid Cymru will continue their support for full webcasting of council meetings, even if it hasn't been officially mentioned yet. They also want to re-open scrutiny of the Local Development Plan.
The Conservatives want to introduce some element of "performance-related" allowances for councillors, coupled with a 10% cut in their pay.

6. The City Region/Regional Working

Local authority mergers are now off the table, so this won't be the last election to Bridgend Council (as I thought it would be).

Under the latest plans for local government reform, the Welsh Government intend for councils to do more work on a regional level. Sounds simple enough, but Bridgend is perhaps in a unique position in Wales in not falling under any specific region.

For example, Bridgend falls under the Cardiff Capital City Region deal and already has a number of high-level co-operation agreements with the Vale of Glamorgan. This also means Bridgend will be included in things like the South Wales Metro, with BCBC paying around £11million towards the deal as a whole. What can we realistically expect to get back?

On the other side, health and social services are planned and delivered in co-operation with Swansea and Neath Port Talbot (Western Bay Programme).

Why does this matter? Accountability, pure and simple. You need to know who's in charge of what and there's a real chance that in the near future Bridgend could be tied up in a number of regional agreements, each one with different partners and different committees etc. You try keeping tabs on that.

(Pic : Mirror)

Having looked at county-wide issues previously, it's time to look at some of the more localised issues, starting with the Bridgend town and Pencoed areas.

Here's a reminder of who's standing where.

1. Turning around Bridgend Town Centre

Bridgend Pedestrianisation Report Released (25.5.16)
Carwyn's Six Point Plan for BridgendTown Centre (7.12.15)

Relevant Wards: Brackla, Bryntirion Laleston & Merthyr Mawr, Cefn Glas, Coity, Litchard, Llangewydd & Brynhyfred, Morfa, Newcastle, Oldcastle, Pendre, Penyfai

In line with most town centres, Bridgend has seen a slow decline in footfall/visitors over the last five years (though it supposedly picked up recently) – accompanied by lots of empty shops. Everything from pedestrianisation to landlords have been blamed.

The next five years will be absolutely crucial for the future of the town centre. Any scheme to partly de-pedestrianise some of the streets will need to be funded and signed off for a start. Issues around car parking will need to be addressed and there's a long-standing desire to attract a major department store to the town centre to claw back trade from the out-of-town retail parks.

I don't want to be pessimistic, but I don't think all of that can be done – particularly the department store as most big name high street retailers have seen sales slump over the last few months, while any plans there might've been to expand/upgrade the Rhiw Centre are pretty much dead now. There are no obvious answers, so BCBC and town centre traders will have to be creative.

Three of the big issues are: the rents charged by landlords (which are extortionate), business rates and small store sizes. Free car parking might help but I don't think it's a cure in its own right as you can still park for free at McArthur Glen for a better selection of stores.

The future of the town centre may well be as a place to live, work and visit - meaning more restaurants, cafes, offices, cultural venues and apartments and fewer shops. The evidence to date (based on the number of restaurants and residential conversiona) is that things are shifting slowly in that direction, but what will that mean for current traders?

2. Affordable Housing & Greenfield Development

Relevant Wards: Aberkenfig, Brackla, Coity, Llangewydd & Brynhyfred, Penyfai, Sarn, Ynysawdre

Most housebuilding in the Bridgend area has been concentrated at Parc Derwen, with future developments at Waterton, Brackla Industrial Estate and a small development near Bryntirion. After that there'll be questions as to where the next Brackla or Broadlands will come from.

The former Coity Sidings in Morfa/Pendre is the only major brownfield site I can think of that could be developed, meaning greenfield options will be put on the table again. I suspect Penyfai and land north of Bryntirion/Llangewydd will be the next piece of countryside eyed up by developers.

Although nothing's likely to happen until the next Local Development Plan is finalised (probably in 2019-2020), the process will start during the next council term, so candidates will have to have some idea of what options they would or wouldn't support now.

3. Road Safety & Parking

Is the level crossing choking Pencoed?
(Pic : via Youtube)

Relevant Wards: Bryntirion Laleston & Merthyr Mawr, Felindre, Hendre, Litchard, Morfa, Oldcastle, Pendre

The roads in and around Bridgend can be a nightmare during peak times. An accident on Bridgend's stretch of the M4 seems to happen every couple of weeks (although that's not the council's responsibility, the junctions are at least partly), with Junction 36 of the M4 already at or exceeding capacity.

Some other problems include the persistent jaywalking at the crossing between Tescos and Bridgend bus station due to how the lights and crossing are laid out. Litchard Cross can be a bit of a nightmare for pedestrians as well and is only likely to get busier as Parc Derwen nears completion.

There's been a lot of attention focused on the A48 bypass too. As mentioned beforethere've been a number of fatal accidents on this stretch of road in recent times and there is/was a campaign to reduce the speed limit and/or provide proper pedestrian crossing facilities at the bottom of Newbridge Fields.

In Pencoed, the level crossing and inadequate Penprysg Road bridge have caused problems for as long as I can remember. The bridge may need to be replaced when electrification work starts on the railway, but as that keeps getting pushed back it's unclear when, or even if, anything will happen in the near future.

One way to deal with traffic problems is to improve public transport – perhaps including increasing the number of trains that stop at Pencoed. There are plans for a bus and taxi lane to link Brackla Street to Bridgend railway station (to enable people to change between different forms of transport more easily) but it's another story of delays and legal wrangling over land ownership involving Network Rail.

4. Future of local services in Pencoed

Relevant Wards: Felindre, Hendre, Penprysg

Of the four "main"towns in the county, Pencoed is probably the most peripheral. It's too big to be completely ignored but, as it's not the focus of major housing developments like the Sarn/Tondu area, it's unclear whether local services could be maintained in the long run because of the fixed, relatively small, catchment area.

As mentioned it's obvious the level crossing acts as as a barrier to development – and maybe this is a good thing if you want greenfield land protected. However, if Pencoed wants to attract a major supermarket and retain some spending money from Bridgend and Talbot Green (Tesco have been sniffing around there for a while now) it needs the catchment area.

This will inevitably impact public services too. Pencoed now has a modern primary care centre, but with libraries and leisure services likely to be in the line for further cuts over the coming five years, user numbers will have to be maintained at the swimming pool and library to stave off any threat to them (personally I don't think there'll be much of a problem there).

5. Attracting and Retaining Major Employers

Is Bridgend ready for the new economy?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Relevant Wards: Every ward in the county (indirectly)

Bridgend and Pencoed host the bulk of the business/industrial premises and land in the county.

Obviously the big question here is over the medium-term future of the Ford engine plant. The incoming BCBC administration will need to prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. In terms of the former that means being prepared to step in and help the workforce if the plant sheds staff, particularly when it comes to retaining their skills.

Although the (combined) Bridgend and Pencoed area is still a major manufacturing base in both Welsh and UK terms, there's still a need to attract new industries. We're fortunate Bridgend and Pencoed already host some technology and IT companies like CGI and have an important base at the Sony Pencoed Innovation Centre – but what about the future? Should Bridgend look to have a robotics factory or do something significant with the expansion of Bridgend Science Park – like a university/college tie-in?

6. Regeneration of Wildmill

Relevant Wards: Morfa

The Wildmill estate – which lies within the Morfa ward – still ranks poorly on national measures of deprivation. Although it once had/still has a bit of a "reputation", the problems aren't quite as bad as they used to be, but still far more prevalent than most parts of the county – drug abuse, high levels of unemployment and economic inactivity, anti-social behaviour.

The housing is clearly becoming dated and you doubt whether many of them will last the next 20-30 years. I'm sure they're all sound but some of them look like they're slowly rotting from the outside. Valleys2Coast housing association have promised major regeneration works before (pdf), but none of those plans have come about and it's been scaled back to the point of relatively minor external refurbishments and demolition of garages.

In an ideal world where money wasn't an issue, Wildmill would be cleared and completely rebuilt with homes front-facing streets, fewer lanes/footpaths/steps, better quality open space and modern community facilities.

The problem of regenerating Wildmill is made more difficult by the fact some people have bought their homes under right-to-buy, so it's not as if they can be demolished and rebuilt whole scale without buying people out at great expense.

(Pic : Wales Online)

Following on from my look at county-wide issues and those in the Bridgend and Pencoed area, I move west to consider Porthcawl and the Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cornelly areas.

Another reminder of who's standing where.

1. Porthcawl Regeneration

Whither Porthcawl? (16.6.12)
Porthcawl saga no nearer happy ending (9.1.14)
Porthcawl regeneration hopes buried under sludge? (5.7.14)

Relevant Wards: Newton, Nottage, Porthcawl East Central, Porthcawl West Central, Rest Bay

Firstly, the good news. Progress has been made on Porthcawl harbour, the Jennings Building and water sports facilities. The "sludge pile" is gone, Natural Resources Wales are looking at strengthening coastal flood protection and there are improvements to walking and cycling routes across the seafront in the pipeline (if not already delivered).

But when it comes to the bad news....it's bad. I don't want to repeat what I've said previously but, to date, the prime regeneration sites of Salt Lake and Coney Beach have seen very little activity and that's putting it politely. Yes, you can argue that supermarkets pulling out can't be helped, but clearly either the terms of the agreement between BCBC and the landowners are too prohibitive, or there's simply no way the areas are going to be regenerated as planned.

One of the big questions facing the incoming administration will be:"Should we restart the regeneration plans?"

If they stick with the current plans, it'll need patience and hope that a new development partner can come in. If they decide to change, any new master plan would have to balance the need for new housing with economic opportunities and the views of residents – in the case of the latter, long-standing calls for a swimming pool in the town which have been ignored.

The other big question is how will Porthcawl be connected to the South Wales Metro? I'm going to assume it'll be by some sort of fast bus service, though if money were no object it could be rail.

2. Events & Tourism Development

Relevant Wards: Newton, Nottage, Porthcawl East Central, Porthcawl West Central, Rest Bay

The Porthcawl area is the prime tourist destination in Bridgend county and, naturally, for economic reasons it needs to be made the most of.

BCBC and others are looking to make big investments in watersports facilities, and that's to be expected as Porthcawl has some of the best surfing beaches in south Wales. However, BCBC seeking to cut funding to beach lifeguard services (which have now been taken over by the RNLI) will inevitable raise safety concerns and perhaps harm development of water sports tourism.

Coney Beach funfair is still a big draw in the summer, if a little dated, and its place in regeneration plans is still uncertain (as mentioned earlier). Other than that Porthcawl is perhaps most famous for its Elvis Festival, held in September, which attracts people from around the world. It receives some support from BCBC, but it's a question of how long that will be maintained and whether Porthcawl has the accommodation necessary to allow events to expand.

The obvious thing would be to bring/continue to bring major golf championships to the Royal Porthcawl (which has already hosted the Senior Open and will again in July). If ambitions were set higher – hosting a Ryder Cup or Solheim Cup, for example - it would require serious investment and planning beforehand.

3. Regeneration of the Marlas Estate

(Pic : via Google Earth)

Relevant Wards: Cornelly

Orginally built to house the families of at the Port Talbot steelworks, North Cornelly's Marlas Estate has become a pocket of deprivation and usually ranks alongside the likes of Wildmill, Caerau Park etc. in national statistics.

Similarly to Wildmill, Valleys2Coast had a grand plan to revamp the estate including upgrades to green spaces and gardens, the creation of mixed-ownership housing and a new community hub (pdf). Presumably cuts and a lack of funding have put paid to that.

A bit of good news is that the area has a very effective youth group (KPC Youth), who've managed to reopen the Youthworks centre on the Marlas estate after its parent company, Groundworks, went into administration in 2014. These types of projects – not only in North Cornelly, but others – may be at risk due to a loss of EU funding post-Brexit and the scrapping of Communities First by the Welsh Government.

4. Future of Mynydd Cynffig Primary

Relevant Wards: Pyle

Plans were originally in place to move Mynydd Cynffig Primary in Kenfig Hill to a new build on the Cynffig Comprehensive campus, but in a dramatic turn of events, BCBC performed a u-turn and scrapped the plans just a few weeks agodue to runaway costs.

This poses a number of questions: Will the current split-site arrangement continue? Will BCBC look to building a new school at a more suitable site elsewhere? What does this mean for the council's capital spending plans if there are question marks over the school's future? Will BCBC do anything at all?

It's estimated the planning process had cost something between £250,000 to £300,000 without anything to show for it. You can argue that BCBC wouldn't have spent so much money if they didn't think the school move was worth it, but you can also say that this was lax use of taxpayers money if they had listened to concerns about road safety in the first place.

5. Future of Opencasting & Quarrying

(Pic : freeindex.co.uk)

Relevant Wards: Bryntirion Laleston & Merthyr Mawr, Cefn Cribwr, Cornelly, Pyle

For all the fuss about the failure to restore the Margam/Parc Slip opencast site– which is supposedly underway now - very little's been said about restoring the number of quarries in the area, particularly at South Cornelly and Stormy Down.

The quarries are perhaps more economically viable than opencast coal mines as the materials are essential for construction, with the Bridgend/Vale of Glamorgan area having large deposits of limestone.

OK, they aren't near any major built up areas, but they're potentially incredibly dangerous places.

For example, there's an abandoned quarry just south of Cefn Cribwr near the railway. A few videos have appeared on Youtube over the last few weeks of "urban explorers" going there, including children. Judging by the state of the buildings, abandoned machinery and what's likely to be a deep and very unpleasant "lake" it's only a matter of time before someone gets injured.

If someone can dig this stuff up, then surely someone can fill the holes back in again. If they're unable to, then should they be allowed to quarry and mine in the first place?

BCBC has its own minerals planning policy which protects land that could be used for limestone quarrying, but ultimately it'll be for the Welsh and UK governments to take the lead in terms of the law and regulations (i.e. minimum distance from homes, restoration funding).

(Pic : Bridgend Council)

My final look at the some of local elections issues in Bridgend county goes north of the M4 to take in the Llynfi, Garw and Ogmore valleys. My look at Bridgend and Pencoed is here, and my look at Porthcawl area here.

Another reminder of who's standing where.

1. The Future of Maesteg Market & Town Hall

Relevant Wards: Caerau, Llangynwyd, Maesteg East, Maesteg West

An issue that could have an impact on how the elections go in the Llynfi Valley, not just because of the plans for the hall itself, but the fallout which resulted in a mass resignation of Labour councillors.

BCBC/Labour want to press ahead with plans to redevelop Maesteg Town Hall and Indoor Market as a"cultural hub", which will include a library, performance spaces and community spaces. It's expected to cost around £4million, but deadlines are tight as applications for EU funding will need to be made before Brexit and BCBC argue that if it doesn't happen the building could become structurally unsafe.

All of this will mean the certain closure of the Indoor Market - which has been there for about 135 years - with no idea of what will replace it. Maesteg also has an Outdoor Market which was upgraded a few years ago, but recent reports suggest that traders may have resigned themselves to the market's closure and will effectively be forced into unemployment by the council.

This is compounded by the selection rows which resulted in the aforementioned mass resignation of Labour councillors last November and the subsequent creation of the Llynfi Independent group. It remains to be seen whether Maesteg residents do what they usually do and vote Labour, or whether the arguments over the town hall and de-selections lead to a sense that their support has been taken for granted by Labour.

2. Over-development in Tondu/Sarn

Relevant Wards: Aberkenfig, Bryncethin, Bryncoch, Sarn, Ynysawdre

The Tondu/Sarn/Bryncethin area has been dubbed the "Valleys Gateway"and has been the focus of numerous housing developments over the last decade. The most recent (and most controversial) are plans to build around 450 new homes near the former Tondu Ironworks.

Brynmenyn Primary is moving to a new location and is being expanded to cope, but the roads and local services certainly aren't. Taken together this "Valleys Gateway"is effectively becoming a new town – much like Llantrisant/Talbot Green – if not an urban extension of Bridgend itself.

Are the services in the area designed to cope? I'm thinking about primary care/GP services in particular. Are the roads designed to cope (I return to both later)? Should the area be considered a single community now rather than distinct villages? If Brynmenyn Primary is being expanded, will Tondu Primary need to be as well?

3. Primary Care Services

(Pic : Bron-y-Garn Surgery)

Relevant Wards: Aberkenfig, Bryncethin, Bryncoch, Caerau, Maesteg East, Maesteg West, Sarn, Ynysawdre

I've already mentioned the potential problems in the Sarn area, but there's a bubbling crisis in GP recruitment that's probably going to hit the valleys harder than anywhere else. Large numbers of GPs are retiring in the coming years, and younger replacements are less minded to take up traditional practice/partner roles where they have to run the business as well as the patient side of things. There's probably a similar situation developing in dentistry as well.

In the medium to longer term we're probably going to see a centralisation of primary care services on fewer sites. There's already an example of this following a GP practice's move to Maesteg Hospital, which could become an "everything under one roof"community hospital similar to Ysbyty Cwm Cynon and Ysbyty Rhondda.

Ultimately it'll be for the local health board (Abertawe Bro Morgannwg) to decide the model for the future, but BCBC will play a big part in that, meaning we ought to see the council and health board prioritise the creation of modern primary care centres in the Sarn and Maesteg areas.

4. The Future of Communities First

Relevant Wards: Bettws, Blackmill, Bryncoch, Caerau, Llangeinor, Maesteg East, Maesteg West Sarn, Ynysawdre

More than half of Bridgend's Communities First areas are located north of the M4, with the Mid and Upper Clusters covering the three valleys.

We still don't know what will replace Communities First when it's phased out by the Welsh Government in the coming years but, while the areas in Bridgend town have a bit more to fall back on, for many in the valleys the scheme may have provided the only organised community programmes.

Will its role now pass to town and community councils? Will the Third Sector be stepping in? Will there be any replacement at all? If not, what would Bridgend Council's policy be on community regeneration?

5. Road Safety & Public Transport Improvements

Relevant Wards: Aberkenfig, Blackmill, Bryncethin, Bryncoch, Llangynwyd, Ynysawdre

Some of the most dangerous and congested roads in the county are located north of the M4, particularly the A4063 between Tondu and Maesteg and the A4061 "Blackmill Bends"between Bryncethin and Blackmill. There've been a number of serious accidents - some of which will have been caused by the drivers themselves. However, the number of sharp bends or bends with limited vision – combined with a temptation to overtake when you shouldn't – makes for an unsafe situation.

As mentioned, housing developments in the Tondu/Sarn/Bryncethin area will inevitably put pressure on the roads in the area, and there have been calls for a Bryncethin bypass for as long as I can remember.

There'll be (valid) arguments that the road between Bridgend and Maesteg needs to be modernised and upgraded, but the cheaper and, perhaps, better option in the longer-term will be half-hourly rail services and Sunday services as part of the Metro – even if it only operates as a shuttle between Bridgend and Maesteg.

I've raised the prospect before of (long-term, money no object) creating some sort of light rail/rail car system for the Llynfi, Ogmore and Garw valleys to complement bus services – which often run about every 20 minutes during peak times, hourly during evenings but don't run on Sundays.

6. What's going to replace the Berwyn Centre?

(Pic : BBC Wales)

Relevant Wards: Nantymoel, Ogmore Vale

A deadline to decided what to do with funding ring-fenced to replace the the Berwyn Centre in Nantymoel – which was closed and demolished by BCBC in 2012– has been extended into next year.

This has become a long-running saga, with problems over business cases and trying to decide precisely where to base/build the replacement – the front runner appears to be Nantymoel Boys & Girls Club.

The incoming administration and local community groups will probably have to have some sort of plan in place within the next six months, with full details ready by next Spring. I doubt BCBC officers will be minded to extend the deadline again, and for this to have dragged on for six years somewhat vindicates the position of those who opposed the closure of the Berwyn Centre in the first place.

(Pic : Brackla Community Council)

In addition to the county council, Bridgend will also be re-electing our twenty town and community councils (their role is explained at the end of this post).

This is how things stand before the election:

(Click to enlarge)

There were ten councils whose political membership I was unsure of, so I contacted the clerks for clarification. Four didn't respond so I've had to use the results of the 2012 election for them.

Many town and community councils operate on a non-political basis – meaning party membership doesn't really matter. This is certainly the case with smaller, rural community councils with small electorates but not so much for the larger town and community councils where party political rows do happen.

(Click to enlarge)

Town Councils

Bridgend Town Council (19 seats)

Bridgend Town Council (BTC) covers the Morfa, Newcastle and Oldcastle wards – effectively the pre-war"old town" of Bridgend itself. It's currently based at Carnegie House in the centre of Bridgend and was "no overall control" at time of posting this, with Independents the largest group.

BTC made national headlines recently for backing a motion that withdrew the council's support for town twinning, handing responsibility to a local twinning committee. They've also had several run ins with Bridgend County Borough Council over its management of the town centre and has played a big role in establishing Carnegie House as an arts/cultural venue.

Labour and Change for Bridgend are already guaranteed seats in the Newcastle ward (precisely how many depends on how the vote goes).

13 candidates from Labour, Greens, Change for Bridgend and Unaffiliated Independents will be standing for 6 seats in Morfa, while Labour, Change for Bridgend and the Tories will be putting up 11 candidates for 6 seats in Oldcastle.

Maesteg Town Council (17 seats)

Maesteg Town Council (MTC) covers the villages of Garth, Caerau and Nantyfyllon alongside Maesteg town itself.

Until 2016 it has always been controlled by Labour, but as a result of a row over candidate selection, and the fallout from the "purge", a mass resignation from the party saw control pass to Independents.

Even if the redevelopment of the town hall/market will be lead by the borough council, MTC will have a big say so Labour will be desperate to retake control amidst a challenge from the Llynfi Independent group of ex-Labour councillors and other apolitical candidates.

Labour are already guaranteed 4 seats (2 in Maesteg West, 2 in Nantyfyllon). The Llynfi Independents are putting up 12 candidates, while Plaid Cymru are also standing 2 candidates.

Pencoed Town Council (13 seats)

Pencoed Town Council (PTC) covers the southern urban part of the Penprysg ward as well as the Hendre and Felindre wards covering Pencoed proper.

PTC was elected completely unopposed in 2012, but this year all three wards will be contested by Labour, Plaid Cymru, Green and Conservative candidates. Labour are guaranteed 3 councillors (2 Hendre, 1 Felindre), while Plaid Cymru will be looking to win a seat/seats in their own right after Tim Thomas's co-option a few years ago.

Porthcawl Town Council (19 seats)

Porthcawl Town Council covers Porthcawl itself as well as the attached historic villages of Nottage and Newton.

The Rest Bay and Nottage wards will be uncontested. Taking all the wards together, Porthcawl Independents are already guaranteed 5 seats, the Conservatives 3, Greens 1 and Labour 1. The remaining 9 seats are likely to lean heavily in the Porthcawl Independent's favour, meaning they stand a good chance of remaining the largest group, if not taking control of the council.

"Big" Community Councils

Brackla Community Council (11 seats)

The council's area of responsibility is the Brackla district of Bridgend town. There are no separate wards, just a single big one. 21 candidates are standing with nobody guaranteed a seat so, like the county borough ward, expect this to be keenly contested.

Labour currently run the council and have put up 9 candidates. The Conservatives usually have at least some presence on the council and have 4 candidates. There are 7 Change for Bridgend candidates and 1 Brackla Independent.

You would expect both the Conservatives and Independents to make some gains, but I would be surprised if it were enough to block Labour running the council again.

Coity Higher Community Council (11 seats)

Covers the historic village of Coity, the new village/district of Parc Derwen and the Litchard and Pendre areas of Bridgend. At the moment it's dominated by Labour.

Labour, Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru, Change for Bridgend and unaffiliated Independents are all standing. Labour are already guaranteed 2 seats (1 Litchard, 1 Pendre), while Change for Bridgend are guaranteed a seat in Coity.

Cornelly Community Council (9 seats)

The council covers North Cornelly, South Cornelly and the hamlets of Kenfig and Maudlam. Historically it's controlled by unaffiliated Independents led by veteran councillor, Jeff Tildesley.

There's a single ward with 19 candidates representing Labour, Independents (unaffiliated) and Plaid Cymru.

Garw Valley Community Council (13 seats)

Covers the whole Garw valley north of Brynmenyn, including the villages of Bettws, Llangeinor, Blaengarw and Pontycymer.

Labour are guaranteed 6 councillors (3 Pontycymer, 2 Blaengarw, 1 Bettws), while Independents are guaranteed 2 councillors (1 Bettws, 1 Blaengarw) – at least one of whom is standing as Change for Bridgend. UKIP are also standing here with a 50:50 chance of getting an elected member for the last seat in Bettws.

Laleston Community Council (13 seats)

Includes the Cefn Glas, Llangewydd, Broadlands and Bryntirion districts of Bridgend as well as Laleston village.

It's one of the most politically-diverse community councils in the county by having sitting Green and UKIP members – though whether that will continue remains to be seen.

There are three wards, all of which are being contested. Labour are guaranteed 3 seats and the Lib Dems guaranteed 2. There are also candidates standing for Change for Bridgend, Greens, Conservatives and UKIP.

Ogmore Valley Community Council (15 seats)

Consists of the Ogmore Valley north of Bryncethin, including Blackmill, Glynogwr, Ogmore Vale, Lewistown/Pantyrawel, Wyndham and Nantymoel. It also include the"enclave" of Evanstown - which is only accessible by driving through Gilfach Goch in Rhondda Cynon Taf (I don't know if this is a unique situation in Wales or not).

The election won't be contested. Labour are guaranteed 3 seats and Independents 5, meaning there are a total of 7 vacancies due to not enough people standing. It also means the council will be in (nominal) Independent control.

Pyle Community Council (9 seats)

Consists of the villages of Pyle and Kenfig Hill. It's traditionally dominated by Labour and they're already guaranteed 7 councillors, with Independents and Plaid Cymru standing single candidates each.

St. Brides Minor Community Council (13 seats)

Covers the villages of Sarn, Bryncoch and Bryncethin.

The Sarn and Bryncethin wards will be uncontested, returning 6 Labour and 2 Change for Bridgend councillors unopposed in total.

Bryncoch will, however, be contested with Labour and Change for Bridgend already guaranteed 2 seats each.

"Small" Community Councils

Cefn Cribwr Community Council (10 seats)

Includes the village of Cefn Cribwr to the east of Kenfig Hill as well as the hamlet of Cefn Cross and the surrounding farmland. The election will be uncontested with all 9 members being Labour, meaning there's 1 vacancy.

Coychurch Higher Community Council (7 seats)

Despite the name it's nowhere near Coychurch, and consists of Heol-y-Cyw and the surrounding hamlets like Rhiwceiliog. The election won't be contested. 4 Labour and 2 Independents have been returned, with 1 vacancy.

Coychurch Lower Community Council (7 seats)

A community dominated by the Bridgend and Waterton Industrial Estates, but also includes the village of Coychurch itself and will eventually include the area currently being developed as Parc Afon Ewenni.

The council has historically been non-political with all members being Independent, but there's a Plaid Cymru candidate standing this year alongside 7 Independents.

Llangynwyd Lower Community Council (7 seats)

Covers the village of Coytrahen and the hamlet of Shwt. It'll be uncontested with 3 Labour and 4 Independent candidates returned unopposed.

Llangynwyd Middle Community Council (12 seats)

Includes the villages of Llangynwyd, Pont Rhyd-y-Cyf and Cwmfelin in the rural area just south of Maesteg.

The Cwmfelin ward won't be contested, with 2 Independent, 1 Labour, 1 Green and 1 Plaid Cymru councillor returned unopposed.

The Pont Rhyd-y-Cyf ward has 8 candidates for the 7 available seats, with Labour guaranteed 2 seats and both Plaid Cymru and Independents guaranteed 1 seat each.

Merthyr Mawr Community Council (7 seats)

A predominantly rural community encompassing the area around Island Farm Close and Ewenny Road in the south of Bridgend, as well as the hamlets of Merthyr Mawr, Tythegston and Stormy Down. 7 Independents have been elected unopposed, so the election won't be contested.

Newcastle Higher Community Council (12 seats)

Covers the villages of Penyfai and Aberkenfig. I've been told the council is officially non-political but candidates stand on party tickets.

The Penyfai ward won't be contested meaning Labour are already guaranteed 2 seats, the Conservatives 1, Plaid Cymru 1 and Independents 1 (with 1 vacancy). The Aberkenfig ward will be contested with Labour already guaranteed 5 seats.

Ynysawdre Community Council (10 seats)

(Pic : Wales Online)

Covers the villages of Brynmenyn and Tondu. It made national headlinesrecently when police were called to deal with the "top boys"from the YCF ultras (pictured above). Yes, really.

The Tondu ward will be uncontested with only a single Independent candidate standing for the 4 available seats. The Brynmenyn ward will be contested with all 7 candidates standing as Independents (surely it would be a good idea for some of them to have stood in Tondu?). So it'll be Independent-controlled with 3 vacancies (down from 7 vacancies in 2012).

With one week to go until polling day my coverage of the local elections is drawing to a close.

Some ward results are predictable, others wards will help determine the outcome of the election and whether Labour retain control of Bridgend. Here's a rundown of what I think those last ones are.

All candidates are listed in alphabetical order – first by party then by surname. Incumbent candidates are in itallics. Here's another reminder of everyone standing next Thursday.

Brackla (4 seats)

Conservative: Tom Giffard, Aniel Pucella, Kay Rowlands, Tyler Walsh
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Shaun Bastin, Stuart Charles, Nathan Goldsworthy, Marcelle Humphreys
Independent (Unaffiliated): Jeremy Young
Labour: Ciaron Jackson, Craig Jones, Hailey Townsend, John Spanswick
Plaid Cymru: Nick Thomas

By being the most populous ward in the county, and also the one with the most seats, Brackla will always be keenly contested.

It's a piece of stereotypical suburbia – mostly car-oriented privately-owned homes in cul-de-sacs (think Brookside). In England it would be classic Tory territory – and there's a good reason Theresa May chose it for a campaign event earlier this week - but Labour dominate the community council and usually take at least half of the available seats.

However, in 2012 Labour managed to take all four seats in one of the shock results of the election. This year though they face a much stronger challenge from the Tories and probably a slightly more distant one from Independents.

If Labour can get their vote out I'd fully expect them to hold on to at least two seats; as for the other two seats it's difficult to call at the moment but you would expect the Tories to win at least one of them after the song and dance on Tuesday.

Caerau (3 seats)

Independent (Llynfi Independents): Phil John, Stephen Smith, Jen Terry
Labour: Paul Davies, Gareth Howells, Phil White
Plaid Cymru: Kyle Duggan

A village at the head of the Llynfi valley. Like many similar places it's been blighted by post-industrial decline and consists mainly of terraced houses and post-war social housing estates which often rank amongst the most deprived areas in Wales.

There's been some investment in the area, but it's the sort of thing you would expect – a tarted up high street with few shops, a new school and some trees. A future exciting development is a pilot for geothermal energy from former mine workings which could help tackle fuel poverty.

Politically you would expect it to be a Labour clean sweep, but following the selection row last year, the Llynfi Independents will seriously threaten them.

Phil White and Phil John should have enough of a personal vote to be re-elected and it'll be a straight fight between Labour and Llynfi Independents for the third seat - and which way that seat goes will help indicate whether Labour will retain control of the council or not.

Cefn Glas (1 seat)

(Pic : signsinsouthwales.co.uk)

Conservative: Jamie Evans
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Paul Warren
Independent (Unaffiliated): Cleone Westwood
Labour: Jon-Paul Blundell
National Front: Adam Lloyd

A mostly quiet residential area made up of a mix between 1960s/1970s family homes and bungalows aimed at retirees. Despite being one of the least-populated wards in the county it's set to be keenly contested.

At the moment it's held by former Labour councillor, Cleone Westwood, who's sitting (and standing again) as an Independent as a somewhat unexpected victim of the Labour "purge" last year.

Paul Warren is putting up a strong challenge under the Change for Bridgend banner, while Labour will be pushing really hard to take the seat back; if they can retain seats like these they'll probably come out on top across the county.

You would think Cleone would be favourite as an incumbent, but it could very easily go anyway and, based on the demographics of the area, even if it isn't natural Tory territory it's the sort of place you would expect them to pick up votes from based on how the polls have been going.

Maesteg West (2 seats)

Independent (Llynfi Independents): Dave Evans, Ross Thomas
Independent (Unaffiliated): Ian Jones, Robert Vincent
Labour: Richard Collins, Ceri Reeves
Plaid Cymru: Dai Berry, Paula Thomas

Both of the Maesteg seats are near enough identical in terms of profile, but as Ross Thomas is probably the most well-known councillor"purged"from/resigned from Labour last year it'll be a good idea of how the Llynfi Independents will perform across the valley.

It's a pretty crowded candidate list, and that really helps Labour to the point that you've got to be suspicious about the inclusion of two unaffiliated Independents, which may cause confusion in the ballot box and draw votes away from the Llynfi Independents....or maybe not. Ross Thomas is well known enough to have a personal vote and I'd be surprised if he wasn't re-elected, but the same goes for Ceri Reeves.

Plaid have done OK in Maesteg in previous elections but you wouldn't expect them to get anything from this.

So I'd expect it to be one Labour, one Independent – a result likely to be replicated in Maesteg East too. But if people want to give Labour a poke in the eye and cause them problems, the Llynfi valley is the best place to do it.

Morfa (2 seats)

Conservative: Judith Butcher, Tom Overfield
Greens: John Evans
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Steven Bletsoe, Martin Williams
Independent (Unaffiliated): Peter Foley
Labour: Stuart Baldwin, Nicole Burnett

Morfa covers central Bridgend (and the Wildmill estate) and comes with the multitude of problems you would expect for an urban ward – car parking difficulties, traffic, houses of multiple occupation, anti-social behaviour.

It's swung all manner of directions over the last 20 years. At the start it was rock solid Labour, then it was briefly a Lib Dem stronghold, then things swung towards Independents with Plaid Cymru putting up reasonable performances (when they've stood). Tories are standing here for the first time since 2004.

Considering it covers Bridgend town centre, Change for Bridgend will want to win at least one of the seats, but they face strong rivalry from – not necessarily Labour – but Peter Foley, who's served Morfa as a Labour, Lib Dem and now unaffiliated Independent councillor.

I don't see Labour winning both seats (if any), it's just a question as to where the Independent vote goes and considering his 20+ years of incumbency, Peter Foley will have an advantage of the three based on name recognition.

Nantymoel (1 seat)

(Pic : via panoramia.com)

Independent (Unaffiliated): David Owen
Labour: Sandy Blackburn

Another "top of a valley" village that usually ranks poorly in deprivation figures, but not to the same extent as Caerau. Most of that is perhaps down to the poor quality of the housing in the area which is mainly out-dated terraces.

Nantymoel has a few things going for it though, including some of the best scenery in the county and a well-regarded primary school. However, its distance from major centres and loss of community facilities does offer a sense of isolation.

It's one of the few seats in the county where Labour will (realistically) be looking to make a gain following their by-election success in Ogmore Vale in 2015, but things have changed since than and you would expect David Owen to have an advantage as an incumbent.

Newcastle (2 seats)

Conservative: Craig Lawton, Carolyn Webster
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Tim Wood, David Unwin
Labour: Neelo Farr, David White

Speaking in general terms it includes some of the wealthier areas of Bridgend town (and largest homes) but also large proportions of rented and social housing on the Ystrad Fawr and West House estates. It doesn't have any particular allegiance to a single party with the ward swinging between Conservatives and Labour.

David Unwin's (well known) previous history as a Conservative county councillor is being pushed by Labour activists, but after the current polls if anything that's likely to garner him greater support.

It's also the First Minister's ward (if he still lives on Park Street), so anything other than two Labour holds will be somewhat embarrassing for Carwyn. The anti-Labour vote splitting between Change for Bridgend and a resurgent Tories could be, ironically, what keeps the seats for Labour.

Oldcastle (2 seats)

Conservative: Matthew Voisey, Lyn Walters
Independent (Change for Bridgend): Freya Bletsoe, Rebecca Porter
Independent (Unaffiliated): Edith Hughes
Labour: Angela Morelli, Gary Sassoon-Hales

Oldcastle has two distinct areas. Firstly, the dense terraced and post-war housing around Nolton Street, Waunscil Avenue and Jubilee Crescent - some of which is social housing and you would expect to be Labour-voting. Secondly, there's the settled professional suburban areas around Merthyr Mawr Road. It's usually Labour-leaning though the Lib Dems have enjoyed success here in previous years.

It's hard to call this one. Large chunks of Oldcastle are natural Tory territory though they've never actually won there in county elections. If there's enough of a desire for change then Independents could well pick up at least one seat (you would expect both Edith Hughes and Freya Bletsoe to be in with a good shout). My gut instinct is that Labour will struggle here.

Penyfai (1 seat)

(Pic : rightmove.co.uk)

Conservative: Altaf Hussain
Independent (Unaffiliated): Meryl Wilkins
Labour: Heidi Bennett
Plaid Cymru: Sarah Parry

A mostly well-to-do village on the outskirts of Bridgend. It's effectively a suburb but has enough of a detachment to maintain a distinct identity and also - somewhat bizarrely – has a relatively high proportion of Welsh-speakers compared to the county average.

The sitting councillor has been selected to run in Mel Nott's old seat of Sarn, so Labour have put forward charity boss Heidi Bennett, whose CV is typical of someone being groomed for higher office by the party. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have put forward former Assembly Member for South Wales West, Altaf Hussain.

Meryl Wilkins has name recognition in the area and served as both a Lib Dem and Independent councillor for Penyfai between 1999 to 2012 - where she narrowly lost to Labour.

A tough one to call, but based on the polls and vote splitting this could be a surprise Tory or Independent gain.

Porthcawl West Central (1 seat)

Conservative: Alun Thomas
Independent (Porthcawl Independents): Sean Aspey
Labour: Alana Davies

All of the wards in Porthcawl are interesting contests because they're all single-member wards (and hence elected by first-past-the-post which negates the impact of bloc voting).

Alana Davies is a former cabinet member for education and was the only big surprise loss of the 2012 campaign for Labour, as Porthcawl swung in favour of Independents following a range of concerns not entirely restricted to stalled regeneration.

A source close to the campaign has predicted Independents could win four of the five seats in the town, and they expect Independents to hold this seat - perhaps with a reduced majority. However, with the Conservatives polling well – and Porthcawl historically backing the Tories to a certain extent - it may have thrown the contest open.

Pyle (3 seats)

Conservative: Phil Barham, David Deere, Ann Lee
Labour: Jane Gebbie, Mike Kearn, Stephen Smith
Plaid Cymru: Rhys Watkins

Covers the small town/large village of Pyle and the village of Kenfig Hill. It's very much a valleys profile area but located within the Bridgend constituency. It's usually locked down for Labour but all three sitting councillors are standing down, meaning the new candidates don't have a track record for voters to judge them on.

Pyle's the only ward in the county with no Independents standing. So if things go good for Labour, they should take all three seats which would be a big boost to their chances of retaining overall control; but if recent polls are to be believed then maybe the Tories (or possibly Plaid) also stand a chance of a surprise gain here too – and this is about as far from natural Tory territory as it gets.

Ynysawdre (1 seat)

Independent (Unaffiliated): Charles Lavis, Haydn Morgan
Labour: Fadhel Abelalkarim
Plaid Cymru: Tim Thomas

An area made up mainly of post-war additions to older villages like Tondu and Brynmenyn, and has increasingly become a dormitory suburb of Bridgend. As mentioned in a previous post there've been a number of housing developments in the area – with more planned – that have stretched local services and infrastructure.

It's been held by Labour since 1995, with veteran councillor Lyn Morgan standing down this year. On paper it should be a Labour hold but the loss of a recognisable figure does present a challenge, with Plaid Cymru heavily targeting this ward and neighbouring Aberkenfig.

As for why there are two Independents standing, you've got me there. It's a slightly bizarre choice of seat for Haydn Morgan - a sitting councillor for Morfa and former Labour member. With the crowded list, it's probably going to swing things back in Labour's favour again.

"Great reception on the doorstep. Hearing good things."

If you didn't know better you would be mistaken for thinking this was a meme where by people go to random doorsteps to pick up radio performances of popular band "Good Things"– who apparently have a long-running rivalry with "Fantastic Response".

Take a look on social media and you'll notice candidates, canvassers and activists have heard one or the other for weeks now, putting Blur vs Oasis into the shade.

But one candidate sent the internet into meltdown by admitting, "It was a bit crap out to be honest."

They explained further, "It was tipping down all evening, then one of the canvassers stepped in dog muck and smeared it up someone's drive....just after we promised their next door neighbour we'd do something about it."

This break from the script sent party colleagues into a tailspin. Going off message ist verboten. I tracked down the candidate who, despite the pressure they were under to be wax lyrical on how great things were on doorsteps, was having none of it.

"'Great reception on the doorstep' actually means: We put leaflets through the letterbox, pray they read it, hope they remember the name come election day - or at least are able to spell it correctly. Then, we all pose for a selfie in the street and shuffle off awkwardly.

"I even had a picture taken of myself crouching down and pointing at a pothole. My stare was so wistful - making out this bump in the tarmac was from a Horizon documentary about the end of the universe - the local amateur dramatic society touted me to play Heathcliff.

"It's not much fun, is it?"

The fit of honesty didn't end there, with the candidate warned for posting something on the internet that somebody somewhere found offensive.

"All I said was that wearing a choker was a lot like saying to the world 'Please decapitate here'....If only there were some way for political candidates to not publish brain farts on social media. Some sort of self-control, maybe."

They were, nevertheless, unrepentant about their weariness with the grassroots of democracy,"Nobody answered the door, though often the best response on the doorstep isno response. Would you like to be lectured on immigration and bringing back the workhouse every 20 minutes?

"I suppose it's a bit dodgy knocking on someone's door after dusk too. Either they've just come back from work and are looking forward to some peace and quiet, or a knock that late usually means it's the police about to tell you a relative has thrown themselves under a train.

"Inevitably you'll see the leaflets piled up in the recycling the next morning. I mean, it's not as if we're giving up our time and sticking our necks out in a thankless task to give them a say on how things are run in their local community.

"Well, we got off our backsides and did something I suppose. At least there are no more elections for a couple of years and nothing could possibly overshadow the local council elections!"

As they walked away, feeling the burst blisters on their feet with every step, I didn't have the heart to remind them. It would've been cruel to deny them that little bit of hope.

A British Heart Foundation report claimed 1 million Welsh adults were“physically inactive”, with women 40% more likely to be inactive than men. Physical inactivity is categorised as doing less than the recommended 150 minutes of moderate exercise a week.
A controversial £39million timber deal agreed by Natural Resources Wales - which was criticised by the Wales Audit Office for its “irregularity” and lack of transparency - was scrapped when the company involved failed to build a timber mill.

River conservation trusts condemned the services of Natural Resources Wales (NRW) after claiming pollution spill-off from farms was “out of control” and the body didn't have the front line staff required to investigate complaints . NRW said it faced “challenges” over pollution but was aiming to “work smarter”.

Figures revealed a 16% jump in the number of junior doctors training as GPs, with 84% of training places filled compared to 68% in 2016. It follows a major recruitment campaign. Health Secretary, Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff S. & Penarth), declared the campaign a “success” and said the“figures speak for themselves”.
South Wales East AM, Mark Reckless, left UKIP to join the Conservative group on April 6^th. He confirmed he'll sit as a Conservative AM but won't be a member of the party. The defection makes the Conservatives the largest opposition group in the National Assembly.

Caroline Jones AM (UKIP, South Wales West) called for him to resign, while UKIP Assembly group leader, Neil Hamilton AM (UKIP, Mid & West Wales), said Mark “betrayed the trust” of party members and has “no mandate”.
A Conservative source told BBC Wales that accepting Mark Reckless into their group without being a member was contrary to party rules, meaning AMs had put themselves at risk of de-selection after they voted to suspend their constitution.

A report by the Communities Committee into refugees and asylum seekers recommended improved housing complaints procedures, more English lessons and more support for unaccompanied child refugees. There are estimated to be between 6,000-10,000 refugees living in Wales.
The Electoral Reform Society (ERS) warned of “democracy deserts”after 92 local council seats went unopposed to single candidates - a similar number to 2012. Gwynedd alone had 21 uncontested seats. The ERS are campaigning for single transferable vote to be introduced in local elections and also criticised the lack of diversity amongst local election candidates.
The National Union of Teachers (NUT) called for the Welsh Government to delay the implementation of a new National Curriculum, with up to 40% of full-time teachers unaware of the Donaldson Review's recommendations.
Fines totalling more than £600,000 were waived for three local authorities – Newport, Blaenau Gwent and Torfaen – after they missed Welsh Government recycling targets for 2015-16. Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) said the Welsh Government had “lost credibility” after failing to follow through with fines for two years in a row.
Figures revealed to BBC Wales showed there were 123 women treated for female genital mutilation (FGM) in 2016. Most of the cases were recorded in south Wales, but Welsh Women's Aid said the numbers were “only the tip of the iceberg” with an estimated 2,000 women living with FGM.
Youth organisations called for“urgent help” after it was revealed up to 30% faced closure due to lack of funding. The Welsh Government have commissioned a review of youth services, but more than 100 groups have disappeared over the last four years.
Qatar Airways announced they would launch flights between Doha and Cardiff Airport in 2018. Passengers will then be able fly to China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and south east Asia via connecting flights, potentially adding an additional 1 million passengers a year flying to and from Cardiff. The First Minister said,“it is more important than ever before to sell Wales to the world."
The Unite union announced a ballot on industrial action would take place at the Ford engine plant in Bridgend in May, following ongoing concerns about the future of the plant beyond 2021. Ford's management said the ballot was “premature” and talks would continue.
The Wales Audit Office said there were“serious shortcomings” in the award of £9.3million in public funds to the company behind the proposed Circuit of Wales development in Blaenau Gwent. Their report criticised the lack of investigation into the background of the companies involved and the Welsh Government “did not explain (to our satisfaction)” why the money was awarded.
Economy & Infrastructure Secretary, Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South), shortlisted 12 locations for new railway stations from 46 as part of a new transport plan. They will go forward for further scrutiny and include locations in Cardiff, Swansea, Wrexham, Newport, St Clears and Llangefni.
The Assembly Commission launched a public consultation on creating a Youth Parliament for Wales. It follows the closure of Funky Dragon in 2014. The Llywydd, Elin Jones (Plaid, Ceredigion), said “We must provide support for them (young people) to discuss issues they care about....we must listen.”

Projects announced in April include: £400,000 to cut smoking rates; an increase in savings people entering residential care can keep to £30,000 (from £25,000); a £24million EU-backed grant scheme to boost rural tourism; a £13million dementia research centre at Cardiff University and a three-year trial of HIV preventative drug, PrEP.

UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced a UK General Election will take place on June 8^th, citing “political game-playing” by opposition parties in Westminster ahead of Brexit negotiations.
On April 19^th, The UK House of Commons voted to hold an election - as stipulated in the the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - by 522 votes to 13. All 40 sitting Welsh MPs will defend their seats.
The First Minister criticised the decision to call an election during a local election campaign as “odd” and “not in the national interest”, saying the economy and Brexit should be prioritised – later challenging the Prime Minister to a debate. There was more enthusiasm from the Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru, both of whom welcomed the announcement.
UK Chancellor, Philip Hammond, refused to rule out including tax increases or scrapping the triple lock on state pensions in the forthcoming Conservative manifesto. The Prime Minister also pledged to maintain overseas aid budgets at 0.7% of GDP.
At a rally in Cardiff, UK Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, called for voters to join him on a journey of “hope and excitement”. He criticised cuts to the Welsh budget, and said he would maintain the “triple lock” on state pensions and seek to close tax loopholes for big companies. Labour also announced they would make the national days of the Home Nations bank holidays.
UK Lib Dems leader, Tim Farron, ruled out forming a coalition with either the Conservatives or Labour after the election, saying voting for the Lib Dems was the only way to prevent a “Hard Brexit”, saying they would hold a second referendum once any deal with the EU is finalised.
Plaid Cymru launched their election campaign on April 25^thin Bangor, saying their party offered a“ray of hope” as an emboldened Conservative government was a threat to public services.

Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood AM (Plaid, Rhondda) ruled out standing for the Rhondda seat after “much consideration” and media speculation. She said she was sure the party will put up a strong candidate and winning the seat from Labour's Chris Bryant was “do-able”.
Former Plaid Cymru leader and Deputy First Minister, Ieuan Wyn Jones, was selected to fight Ynys Môn for the party. Polling suggests the seat, currently held by Labour's Albert Owen, is considered a three-way marginal between Plaid, Labour and the Conservatives.

The Prime Minister told activists at a campaign event in Bridgend she wanted to open new markets to Welsh businesses post-Brexit with the“best possible trading deal”. The First Minister criticised the visit to his Assembly constituency as “a stunt” and warned voters to “see the Tories for what they are.”
Jeremy Corbyn called for people to register to vote saying the young in particular were “being held back”. He said a “fairer Britain” should bend over backwards to help people who are struggling to reach their potential.

My coverage of the 2017 local elections draws to a close with the most important post of all: What are the parties/groups promising to do for Bridgend?

I'll list some key policies each group are proposing (where applicable) and I'll also give a projection for what the outcome might be on Thursday.

Here's a final reminder of who's standing in eachward.

Labour

(Pic : Cllr. John Spanswick via Twitter)

Invest £46million in new schools buildings and retain full-time nursery education for three year olds.
Continue to invest in extra care facilities as an alternative to care homes.
Reverse plans to charge blue badge holders to park;"pilot"free car parking in Bridgend town centre.
Maintain fortnightly black bag collections for five years, and establish a "specialist team" to tackle littering and dog fouling.
Commit to delivering the South Wales Metro element in Bridgend.

Labour are the establishment party in Bridgend – thanks to a sizable core vote (or if you were more cynical, "donkey vote") in the Ogmore constituency wards (and a few south of the M4 as well).

With a credible threat from the Tories in the Bridgend constituency in June's General Election, the onus will be on Labour to retain control of the council. They do wobble when put under pressure amidst local controversies – see Porthcawl in 2012. However, Bridgend Labour have only lost control of Bridgend county once, between 2004-2008 to a rainbow coalition.

In terms of policies, there's an argument they haven't put forward anything new and are just re-announcing policies they're already agreed or committed to (like rubbish collections, extra care and the South Wales Metro). Far from offering change they're offering more of the same and it all sounds a bit lacklustre, perhaps hoping that voters will vote for personalities and the "Devil they know"instead of hard policies.

My gut feeling is Labour aren't the sure bet they think they are but the smart money will be on Labour retaining control of the council unless there's a mass desertion of traditional voters (for reasons I'll explain later).

Liberal Democrats

(Pic : Wales Online)

Reverse 1% annual cut to schools budget.
Overturn reductions in grass-cutting, litter-picking and bin-emptying.
Would seek to use loopholes in the new rubbish collection contract to "alleviate problems where they exist".
Be "more innovative" and use assets to raise revenue to fund things like pothole filling.

The first big test for the party as to whether"the fightback" is real, or a mirage....and the Lib Dems have fluffed it, failing to defend two of their seats, including the loss of Norah Clarke who's now running as an Independent in Nottage.

The only Lib Dem heartlands in the county are/were Porthcawl and the western half of Bridgend town (they've won seats in Morfa and elsewhere before). With their only real chance of any success being Cheryl Green retaining her seat (or pulling off a double in Laleston with Ian Spiller) it's not looking good and that opens the doors to others.

It's a pretty limp, if practical, set of proposals. I was expecting them to put up more of a fight, but in many respects it's sensible to focus resources on seats they stand a realistic chance in than put up paper candidates. It's worth reminding everyone that the party led the council less than 10 years ago, now they're an endangered species.

Conservatives

(Pic : Barry Today)

Reverse 1% annual cuts to schools budget.
Renegotiate the new rubbish collection contract and introduce a"recycling incentive scheme".
Freeze council tax, cut councillors allowances by 10% and introduce a performance-related incentive for councillors.
Introduce free car parking or reduced charges to encourage people back into town centres.

The Tories had a disastrous result in 2012, retaining a single councillor in Ken Watts (Newton). They could usually count on a strong vote in parts of Bridgend town itself, Brackla and Porthcawl – reflected in the large number of community councillors – but for some reason support disintegrated. Is that support about to come back?

In recent weeks they've emerged as the strongest challenger to Labour nationally and at UK level, but will that extend to the local elections? Some of the policies are the sort of thing you would expect – like freezing council tax, introducing free car parking with a dash of populism by opposing the new waste collection contract; but have Change for Bridgend – who they've written off – stolen their thunder?

Suzy Davies AM (Con, South Wales West) has vocally campaigned on issues affecting Bridgend and Porthcawl for several years. This could prove crucial in the fight to prevent votes slipping to Independents and, with more candidates, could swing some contests in the Tory's favour.

Plaid Cymru

(Pic : Leanne Wood AM via Facebook)

Opposes the "two bag limit" for rubbish collections.
Wants to crack down on senior officer pay (Plaid councils generally pay officers less).
Ensure more local government procurement contracts are awarded to local companies.
Reverse cuts to respite services for unpaid carers and invest in services used by the elderly.
Bring empty homes back into use.
Review all greenfield housing developments and re-open scrutiny of the Local Development Plan.

Plaid's set of policies generally chimes in with what they're proposing nationally, with the final one on housing developments targeted at voters in Ynysawdre and Aberkenfig specifically – which is where Plaid have focused their campaign.

When you compare Plaid's performances in Bridgend to neighbouring local authorities like Neath Port Talbot, Vale of Glamorgan and Rhondda Cynon Taf it's not great; but after putting up more candidates than ever before in 2012 they've aimed to build on that with Leanne Wood addressing what appears to have been a well-attended public meeting in Tondu a few weeks ago.

Plaid are going to have to be patient. Bridgend isn't natural Plaid territory, but to their credit they've put up a good number of candidates this year – completely outstripping UKIP and the Lib Dems - but it probably won't be enough to out-do the Independents.

Malcolm James aside, Tim Thomas is the closest thing to a senior local Plaid personality. Despite his lack of electoral success to date he's made an impact – webcasting of council meetings come about partly because of pressure he put on BCBC. He stands a chance in Ynysawdre (and James Radcliffe in Aberkenfig), but Llangynwyd's the only sure-fire Plaid-leaning ward in the county. Two seats would be a good result, three would be great.

Change for Bridgend

(Pic : Wales Online)

Opposes "two bag rule"rubbish collections and will review the contract with a view to raising the limit; seek to expand the number of materials that can be recycled.
Carry out a full review of service contracts to ensure the public are getting value for money.
A rolling repair and renewal programme for roads; ensure contractors are held to account for their standard of work.
Work with other local authorities and the Welsh Government to change business rates in order to encourage landlords to act on empty shops.
A rolling programme of locally-focused capital projects working in partnership with town and community councils.

The new kids on the block, who've ruffled more than a few feathers along the way and are perhaps the most interesting political development in Bridgend for a long time.

The self-described "Facebook moaners" put their money where their mouths are and are standing a commendable 23 Independent candidates for county seats and almost double that for town and community councils. This has all happened in the space of about 6-8 months and they've garnered support from former Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem and UKIP members, councillors and candidates.

They've produced a fairly comprehensive 50-point "manifesto", though some of it comes across as a bit"buzzword bingo". There are no major contradictions, but they've faced accusations (from Labour and Tories) of not being in a position to provide a coherent programme – when they've actually produced the most comprehensive programme of anyone standing!

Although they're already guaranteed seats at town and community council level, I don't think they should be expecting miracles at county level as some of the contests may prove difficult, but if things go their way they could turn out to be the big story of the election.

Llynfi Independents

(Pic : Llynfi Independents via Twitter)

Opposes the 1% budget cut to schools.
Supports redevelopment of Maesteg Town Hall, subject to full consultation with the local community.
Supports full redevelopment of the former Revlon/Cosi factory at Ewenny Road.
Would scrap the £285,000 per year "councillors fund" (divided amongst councillors to spend on local projects) and would review the £6million "corporate budget"with a view to making savings.
Would place the interests of the Llynfi Valley above party politics.

A new Independent political grouping, formed (mainly) from Labour councillors and members who resigned en masse towards the end of 2016 following suspensions and de-selections – described as a "purge" - after clashes over discipline and policy. They've picked up more support since then and by all accounts have Labour worried in Maesteg and Caerau, drawing extra Labour party resources and time away from elsewhere in the Ogmore constituency.

Labour didn't need a second headache when already trying to fend off Change for Bridgend, but because many of the Llynfi Independents are well known they perhaps pose a stronger threat.

I'd expect at least two/three of them to retain their seats. If they can get a clean sweep in Maesteg and Caerau – and retain control of Maesteg Town Council - it'll may well be enough it itself to deny Labour control of Bridgend Council. Wouldn't that be ironic?

Porthcawl Independents

(Pic : via Twitter)

Wants to ensure Porthcawl "gets a fair share" of BCBC finance.
Supports regeneration efforts in the town, but believe the views of Porthcawl residents have been "disregarded".
Wants to create a"welcoming environment"to the town by targeting littering, dog fouling and instituting repair and renewal of existing infrastructure.
Supports moving Porthcawl Town Council to new offices with improved mobility access.
Ensure taxes are spent wisely and fairly to the benefit of Porthcawl residents.

The Porthcawl Independents stormed onto the local political scene in 2012, when disgruntled residents – who felt Porthcawl is disadvantaged compared to other parts of the county, and critics of local regeneration efforts in the town – combined to pull off one of the few shocks of the election by unseating Labour cabinet member, Alana Davies.

Since then the group has grown on Porthcawl Town Council and have added experienced former Lib Dem councillor Norah Clarke to their number. There's no sign of a Labour resurgence in Porthcawl and, by all accounts, the Independents are popular amongst locals. They should be cautiously optimistic of retaining what they've already got and adding to it at both county and town council level, with their main rivals being the Tories, not Labour.

Independents (Unaffiliated)

These are general independents who don't form part of a single group (official or unofficial). There are no specific policies as each one will have their own.

Their key strengths are their levels of experience and name recognition. Jeff Tildesley (Cornelly) must be one of the longest-serving councillors in Wales, Ella Dodd (Coity) is still sprightly and going strong into her 80s, while Peter Foley (Morfa) has 20+ years experience; alongside them are senior former Labour councillors like Cleone Westwood and Haydn Morgan who've opted against joining a group. You could easily see these "wise elders" horse-trading with Labour if Labour fall short of a majority.

The challenge facing them is whether they'll be able to hold off the more organised campaigns from the likes of the Llynfi Independents and Change for Bridgend. There's a possibility they'll take votes off each other and that could help Labour.

Greens

You've got to say their chances of winning a county seat are slim, but it's a better picture at town and community council level. Kathy Lewis managed to get elected as a Green community councillor in Laleston back in 2012.

They're already guaranteed a Porthcawl Town councillor (Alex Harris) and a Llangynwyd Middle councillor (Tom Muller) after they were elected unopposed, while Laurie Brophy stands a good chance with Pencoed Town Council. So in some respects this is already the Greens most successful election in Bridgend before a vote's even been cast and they're set to out-perform UKIP.

UKIP

Amazingly, UKIP are only putting up a single candidate for the county elections – Glenda Davies in Bettws. This is despite Caroline Jones AM (UKIP, South Wales West) having an office in Porthcawl and the party getting decent vote shares in recent elections. That's an utterly pathetic showing and a sign there are serious problems behind the scenes, with a number of people already leaving the party - the most prominent perhaps being Chris Smart in Porthcawl.

They've put up a few candidates for town and community council seats, and their best bet for success is there - but they shouldn't get their hopes up.

Bridgend Result Projection

Anyone who's followed this site for any length of time knows that I usually get my predictions spectacularly wrong (as I did with the Bridgend election in 2012).

So instead of a "hard prediction"of precisely who I expect to win each seat, I'm going to do a cautious projection/range to give you an idea of what I expect each party/group to achieve on Thursday, assuming there were no dramatic shifts in voting intentions.

(Click to enlarge)

Labour ought to retain control of Bridgend Council with a reduced majority. Whether that happens or not is down to you and how you vote, though after the bombshell poll last week the projection isn't worth much and if anyone's going to over-perform it's likely to be the Conservatives.

I know that'll disappoint everyone hoping for change (and remember it's a cautious projection) but it comes down to the electoral system and the number of non-Labour candidates standing.

For example, if there are 3 seats in a ward, all Labour need to do – as the establishment party – is make sure as many of their supporters as possible (who are traditionally loyal) vote for all the Labour candidates on the ticket and nobody else. The percentage of the vote they get doesn't matter.

Unless loads of Labour supporters desert their party, in those wards where you have multiple opposition candidates standing at the same time for different parties/groups, the chances are Labour will win all of the seats in ward because the non-Labour vote will be split.

Now that my coverage of the local election over and done with it's worth setting out what's next.

I'm going to try and get posts on the Bridgend Council and town & community council results done by the weekend (probably Friday and Sunday respectively). I aim to get a post on the all-Wales local election results done by the end of next week (because I need to do some number crunching) – so there'll be no FMQs post next Tuesday.

After that I'll reveal my decision on the future of the site.

This afternoon saw the final FMQs before the local elections on Thursday and the first since the announcement of the forthcoming UK general election.

FMQs, 2^nd May 2017

Party Leaders

UKIP leader, Neil Hamilton AM (UKIP, Mid & West Wales), flagged up Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott's “gaffe”on the cost of recruiting extra police officers this morning, asking for clarity on Labour's proposed policy. He cited figures that show the last time capital gains tax was increased, revenues fell – it also amounted to a tax on pensioners, many of whom may offset capital gains to sustain their incomes in retirement.

The First Minister reiterated the importance of “getting more bobbies on the beat” and made it clear Labour's policy would cost £300million a year, not £300,000 or £80million - paid for by reversing cuts to capital gains tax. He then accused UKIP of being “soft on crime” and believed Neil Hamilton had confused capital gains tax with inheritance tax.

Next, Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood AM (Plaid, Rhondda), asked (I have to say a slightly oddly worded question that I've had to rephrase) why the First Minister changed his mind on Labour's general election chances? We've had five different Shadow Welsh Secretaries since 2015 and Labour were “squabbling over lifeboats”, amounting to gross incompetence.

Carwyn didn't quite get the line of questioning but believes Labour has a better chance of winning an election than Plaid Cymru regardless, and don't want the Tories to “walk all over Wales” (amidst more pre-election posturing).

Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies AM (Con, South Wales Central), drew attention to the recent Wales Audit Office report into the Circuit of Wales. The Welsh Government could have broken EU state aid rules and Welsh taxpayers' money had clearly been misused, with up to £300,000 used to buy a bankrupt motorcycle firm; would the First Minister apologise?

The First Minister tried to bat it away - and it didn't quite work - by saying the Cancer Drugs Fund in England (a policy the Tories wish to replicate in Wales) was criticised as a“waste of money” too. There will always be risks with projects the size of the Circuit of Wales but money has to be used responsibly. Nothing has been said about whether the project is worth supporting, but it's still unclear at this stage whether the project is a suitable risk for further Welsh Government backing.

Backbenchers

Sian Gwenllian AM (Plaid, Arfon) asked for a statement on plans to create a medical school in north Wales. The case for a medical school to serve the north and west was “clear and robust” and could help reduce the over-reliance on agency staff, with the Betsi Cadwaladr health board spending £21million a year on locums.

The First Minister said work was“ongoing” on determining the future of medical training in the north and the Health Secretary will be making a statement “in the coming weeks”. He was non-committal to a medical school as such, saying there has to be enough of a “professional challenge” to entice trainee doctors to an area.

Huw Irranca-Davies AM (Lab, Ogmore) asked what assessment has been made of the potential benefit to Wales if the UK Government borrowed more in light of low interest rates? Classic economics underlines that governments can reverse cuts and boost the economy by borrowing more when the cost of borrowing is cheaper.

The First Minister believes a shift in policy could boost capital infrastructure spending. All governments borrow, but it should be done for the right reasons not to subsidise tax cuts. The UK Government has no vision for capital infrastructure and that's why we've seen projects like rail electrification and the Swansea Bay tidal lagoon slip back. He believes £1.5billion would be a “prudent” level of borrowing for Wales.

For the sake of clarity I'm counting him as a Tory for Assembly business - Mark Reckless AM (Con, South Wales East) asked an eccentrically-worded question on the “appropriate magnitude” of borrowing for Welsh Government in the UK context? (English: How much money do you think the UK Government should allow the Welsh Government to borrow?) Did he think it was appropriate for the UK Government to borrow 300 times more than Wales (£500billion) as proposed by Labour?

The First Minister said the Welsh Government will make the best use of the £1billion borrowing powers provided in the new fiscal framework for Wales. The UK Government has far more tools at its disposal to pay back any borrowing (tax, fiscal powers). He repeated his belief that borrowing to pay for infrastructure is important, but it has to be done prudently.

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After the doorstopping, leaflet posting and Facebook rants, voters have elected a new Bridgend County Borough Council - the result is above.

My"projection" wasn't that far off in the end.

Turnout was reportedly just under 40% - higher than 2012, but still very poor.

The Casualty List

Congratulations to everyone who was elected or re-elected. Commiserations to those of you who missed out. Politics can be a very "chew you up, spit you out" game, and here's a list of the sitting councillors who lost their seats, including some senior figures:

Labour: Neelo Farr (Newcastle), Cherie Jones (Litchard), Craig Jones (Brackla), Alex Owen (Penprysg), Ceri Reeves (Maesteg West), Mal Reeves (Maesteg East), Marlene Thomas (Llangeinor), Hailey Townsend (Brackla), Richard Williams (Hendre)
Independents: Ella Dodd (Coity), Peter Foley (Morfa), Edith Hughes (Oldcastle), Phil John (Caerau), Haydn Morgan (Morfa - stood in Ynysawdre), Cleone Westwood (Cefn Glas)

Labour

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It's Labour's worst result in Bridgend since 2004, losing 13 seats and seeing their vote share drop by an eye-watering 15.7%.

Labour were trying to fight on multiple fronts and by and large they held their lines, but you can see where it didn't: Maesteg, Brackla – which produced one of the shock results of the night with the loss of former cabinet member, Hailey Townsend – and a few seats in the Garw Valley.

Clearly they have a serious problem in the towns/urban areas and the only thing that saved them was the vote-splitting caused by large numbers of opposing candidates. If that hadn't have happened, Labour could've easily been looking at 20 or fewer seats.

There are some bright spots. They held all three seats in Pyle and Caerau - the latter being a particularly good result considering the pressure put on them by the Llynfi Independents. They also managed to (re)take both seats in Morfa for the first time in a long time, and held off Change for Bridgend's Tim Wood in Newcastle by just 9 votes (and many other places too).

It seems they took their eye off the ball when it came to Plaid's performance in the Ynysawdre/Aberkenfig area and the strength of the Tory vote in Bridgend itself. There may well have been a bit of "Nobody here would ever vote Plaid or Tory" arrogance on Labour's part. Add to that Janice Gregory's clunking fists with regard the"purge" and the big issue of the election that everyone in Labour seems to have dismissed too easily....rubbish collections.

It's not a complete disaster, but they can't spin this as a positive and activists will need to work their backsides off over the next five weeks to prevent Bridgend going to the Tories in June.

Independents

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A mixed bag for the Independent candidates.

They more than doubled the number of votes cast for them – rising from just under 10,000 votes in 2012 to just under 20,000 in 2017 – but I suspect they're victims of the electoral system.

As expected the Porthcawl Independents doubled their number - though they couldn't quite make it a clean sweep in the town.

The Llynfi Independents pulled off a good result in Maesteg East, taking both seats (in addition to one in Maesteg West) – but they failed to win any seats in Caerau which must count as a disappointment.

Change for Bridgend candidates received more votes (~6,100) than Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems combined and come away with three seats – two of them in straight fights with Labour, one a more impressive victory for Amanda Williams in Coity who's unseated the unaffiliated Independent, Ella Dodd.

If they didn't have to contend with paper Tory candidates and unaffiliated Independents, Change for Bridgend could've won 5 or 6 seats and went very close in Newcastle as said. Considering this is their first serious go, to win three seats isn't bad at all with the prospect of more good news as the town and community council results come in.

The victims were the unaffiliated Independents. Many familiar names - like the aforementioned Ella Dodd, Peter Foley, Edith Hughes, Haydn Morgan – are now gone. Maybe social media played its part, with the"groups"seemingly much more tech and media savvy than the"old heads".

Conservatives

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The Conservatives will have plenty to smile about today. Safe to say they've exceeded all expectations and put 2012's disappointment behind them.

By my count this is their best result since Bridgend county was established in 1996, taking 11 seats and 29.4% of all the votes cast (+11.7% compared to 2012).

The places you would've expected to vote Tory – the wealthier suburbs and districts of Bridgend, Penyfai, Porthcawl - did so; but the surprising thing is the big presence the Tories are building in Pencoed (which is in the safe Labour Ogmore constituency before anyone gets too excited).

The big question I'm sure on everyone's lips is, "What can we take from this with an eye on June's UK general election?"

Not much to be honest. This election was fought on local issues (as a nice change) and I don't think you can read into these results to get an idea of how things might play out in Bridgend come June. Will it boost Tory morale? Definitely, and at the moment I'd say it's more likely than not that Labour will lose Bridgend - but this might well be the wake-up call Labour need to get boots on the ground.

Plaid Cymru

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By Plaid Cymru standards in Bridgend this is a great result. Not quite a major breakthrough, but significant. I think it might be their best ever result in terms of seats won (or at the very least matches it).

Plaid have run a very targeted campaign aimed at the"Valleys Gateway" area (Tondu/Sarn/Bryncethin) for some time now and it's finally paid dividends. Tim Thomas and James Radcliffe (via recount) will both join Malcolm James in the council chamber and, for Tim in particular, his patience has paid off.

The only clouds are that their percentage of the total vote actually fell slightly (-0.9%), while their performance in some seats would otherwise be considered poor with only double-figure vote returns. Maybe resources and time would've been better spent elsewhere.

However, with better targeting and better support this is a result Plaid can certainly build upon.

Lib Dems, Greens, NF & UKIP

Due to the low number of candidates and share of the vote I won't be doing any graphics/maps for the following.

I'm starting to get tired of saying this, but it was a bad night for the Lib Dems. Only Cheryl Green is returned (as expected). The only crumbs of comfort I can think of is that Cheryl topped the poll in Bryntirion and the Lib Dems finished second in Llangewydd & Brynhyfryd.

The Greens put up fewer candidates and, as you might expect, those they did put up didn't perform spectacularly. They can comfort themselves with some guaranteed seats at town and community council level.

UKIP did bugger all (though Glenda Davies did out-poll the Tories in Bettws), as did Bridgend's resident perennial neo-Nazi candidate.

What next?

The first meeting of the full council won't take place until May 17^th, so it's going to be a short while until we know for certain who'll be running Bridgend Council. As for the options:

A Labour minority council – This is the most likely outcome. Despite the poor result, Labour are only just short of a majority and will be able to get budgets and policies passed by horsetrading with some of the opposition councillors (either Independents, Lib Dem or Plaid Cymru). Labour ran Bridgend Council as a minority government between 2008-2012 with few problems. It means they won't be able to steamroller through policies and budgets but will still, ultimately, shape them.
A Labour-led coalition – A more formal agreement could see Labour and one (or more) of the opposition groups join forces to ensure a majority. That could be Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems, or it could be one or two of the Independent groups. Personally, I don't see it happening because I doubt the Independents will want to jump straight into bed with Labour after the (occasionally nasty) campaign they've just been put through, though there are hints Labour were making overtures to some Independents just prior to the election.
A Rainbow Coalition – Last happened between 2004-2008 with mixed results. A non-starter for me. I don't see all of the Independents wanting to work with the Tories, and trying to get them all to agree on single policies won't work; though they might agree on a few of them such as a review of the new rubbish collection policy.

The results for the town and community councils are still being counted (AFAIK) – I'll have something on that once they're revealed. I also aim to have something on the Wales-wide results early next week.

Locals 2017: The State of Play

FMQs: Sport Wales, Gibraltar & Banks

Automation: Resistance is Futile?

Locals 2017: Councils to Watch

A Welcoming Wales?: Realities of Refugees Lives

Reckless Abandon?

Locals 2017: Party Expectations

Bridgend 2017: How have Bridgend Council performed?

Bridgend 2017: Who's standing where?

Bridgend 2017: Key Issues Countywide

Bridgend 2017: Key Issues - Bridgend & Pencoed

Bridgend 2017: Key Issues - Porthcawl & Pyle

Bridgend 2017: Key Issues - Llynfi, Garw & Ogmore

Bridgend 2017: Town & Community Councils

Bridgend 2017: Wards to Watch

Candidate Stuns Social Media With Doorstep Honesty

Senedd Watch - April 2017

Bridgend 2017: Party Policies & Prospects

FMQs: Gaffes, Circuit of Wales & Borrowing

Bridgend Council Election Results 2017